It’s another night where the NBA takes a backseat to March Madness. But the pro-ballers still have a jam-packed schedule with 10 games on the board and I’ve found my three favorite NBA player props for tonight.
They include a pair of players coming off injuries and still rounding into form as the playoffs approach. Fred VanVleet will launch the Houston Rockets against the Miami Heat while Chet Holmgren will continue to roll for the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Charlotte Hornets.
Those and more NBA picks for Friday, March 21.
Best NBA player props today
VanVleet Over 12.5 points (-115 at bet365) 
Holmgren Over 1.5 threes (+105 at bet365) 
Thompson Over 5.5 rebounds (+115 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 21
Fred VanVleet Over 12.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Houston Rockets are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, winning eight games in a row. They’ll go for No. 9 when they visit the Miami Heat tonight.
The winning streak has launched the Rockets into second place in the Western Conference and is getting healthy, and it’s not a coincidence that Fred VanVleet has been back for seven of the eight games during this winning streak and he’s starting to find his shooting rhythm.
VanVleet was averaging 14.6 points per game before suffering an ankle injury that cost him more than a month of action. He was a little rusty when he first returned but has put up 19 or more points in two of his last three games. The most promising part is he went 8-for-23 from beyond the arc in those two games.
The Heat have struggled defensively since the Jimmy Butler saga ended. Miami ranks 18th in defensive rating and 24th in opponent field goal percentage since the All-Star break. It also ranks 18th in opponent 3-point attempts and 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage during that period.
Oddsmakers have still set VanVleet’s point total at a modest 12.5. Give me the Over and his alternate point milestone of 15+ at +160 is tempting, too, especially when our Covers Prop Projections have him at 14.5.
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 threes (+105 at bet365)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are cruising to the top seed in the Western Conference with just three losses since the start of February. They’ll try to make it five straight wins when they play their second straight game against the lottery-driven Charlotte Hornets.
There is little more for the Thunder to prove, so they’ll likely use the remaining weeks of the regular season to get healthy and prepped for the playoffs. To me, that sounds like more action for Chet Holmgren.
Holmgren missed the majority of the season with a hip injury before returning at the beginning of February but has only played 13 games since. However, he’s starting to find his form.
The 22-year-old is averaging 19.3 points and 10 rebounds over his last three games. He’s also been letting it fly from downtown, going 7-for-14 from 3-point range during that stretch and he’ll have a great opportunity to keep draining treys against Buzz City tonight.
Coming off a win over the New York Knicks, the Hornets are still showing some fight. But this team is more concerned about improving its position for the upcoming NBA Draft.
Charlotte has the fourth-worst defensive rating since the All-Star break and has been burned on the perimeter. The Hornets rank 27th in opponent-attempted threes per game while ranking 25th in 3-point shooting percentage against.
Holmgren has hit at least two threes in three straight. At plus money, I’m willing to bet Holmgren makes it four in a row.
Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 rebounds (+115 at bet365)
Fading the Dallas Mavericks on the glass is something that needs to be done for the remainder of the NBA season.
The Mavericks’ downfall this season has been well-documented. It started with the idiotic Luka Doncic trade and was followed by a rash of injuries headlined by Kyrie Irving. But the frontcourt has been particularly devastating.
Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively, and Daniel Gafford have all been sidelined for a while and won’t be available for tonight’s matchup against the Detroit Pistons.
With those three guys out, it’s no surprise that the Mavs have been getting bullied on the boards. Dallas ranks dead last in both rebounding rate and opponent rebounds per game since the All-Star break.
So, this is all about which Pistons player to target on the boards. For me, that’s Ausar Thompson.
Thompson’s breakout has been a big part of the Pistons’ leap this season. The 22-year-old is averaging 10.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game since becoming a starter 34 games ago.
His rebounding prop is set at 5.5 with the Over at enticing plus money. Thompson has gone Over this number in four of his last nine games and the matchup with the Mavs makes it more than worthwhile.
In addition to the Mavs’ struggles on the glass, this game is a matchup of two Top 10 teams in terms of pace since the break, so there should be some extra possessions for Thompson to haul down boards.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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