The Toronto Raptors have ridden a wave of momentum at home to finally climb back to the .500 mark, but will that recent success travel with them on the road, going against one of the top contenders in the Eastern Conference — the Philadelphia 76ers?
The Raptors currently sit in ninth place in the East but are just a game-and-a-half behind the Heat for seventh, and a potential play-in home game. But Toronto’s schedule down the stretch is daunting, starting with this matchup against the 76ers.
Philly bounced back after a rough road trip by taking care of business against the walking disaster that is the Dallas Mavericks, and head coach Doc Rivers says he will actually be ramping up his player’s minutes to prepare them for the grind of the playoffs.
Does that spell trouble for a Raptors team that hasn’t been nearly as strong on the road this season? I break down this Atlantic Division matchup and bring you my best bet in our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. 76ers on March 31.
Raptors vs 76ers best odds
Raptors vs 76ers picks and predictions
The Raptors have been on a roll at home lately. Now, a good team would be able to continue that strong play on the road, even against one of the top teams in the East. So, are the Raptors a good team? After nearly an entire season of watching them, I’m still not sure.
They do plenty of things well, like hustle on defense, and get out and run in transition. But they also do many things that make you want to pull your hair out at times. One aspect that I think will travel with them into this matchup with them is the play of Pascal Siakam.
Siakam has found his groove once again and is one of the big reasons why the Raptors have had all that success at home of late.
Siakam is averaging 24.3 points on 47.6% shooting while contributing 7.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game this season, but was mired in a shooting slump for a while and was putting up just 15.7 points per game over a seven-game stretch in late February and early March.
However, over the last seven games, Siakam has looked like an All-Star once again, putting up 24.7 points on 50.8% shooting from the floor while adding 10.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists.
Siakam also always seems to get up for these matchups with the 76ers. And that may be partially because he’s a bit of a matchup problem for them. He’s a little too quick for Joel Embiid and a little too big for a guy like PJ Tucker or Tobias Harris (questionable to play with an illness.)
In three games against Philly this season, Siakam has averaged 28 points per game while shooting 50.6% from the field. His point total for tonight is set at 21.5. He’s gone Over that number in two of the three games against Philly and five times in his last seven games overall.
My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points (-115 at PointsBet)
Got an idea for a Raptors vs 76ers bet that you really like?
Try PointsBet's "Request Your Bet" feature — You name it, they'll price it.
Raptors vs 76ers spread analysis
The Raptors opened this Atlantic Division matchup as 5-point road underdogs, and that’s where the line remains as of Friday afternoon.
At this point, it has become quite obvious that the Raptors have preferred playing at home this season and that their home cooking has carried them down the stretch. Toronto is 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games at home. But it can be said — the competition in those games hasn't been the greatest.
So, the question is, can they carry that momentum into their final and most important road trip of the season, starting tonight in Philadelphia? They then play two straight games in Charlotte, followed by two straight games in Boston, before closing the season at home against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Toronto’s issues remain the same as they have much of the season. Its aggressive style of defense has resulted in opponents getting too many open looks, and more importantly, the halfcourt offense still struggles, particularly when games tighten up in the fourth quarter.
The fact of the matter is that this isn’t a great shooting team. It ranks 28th in 3-point shooting percentage and 29th in effective field goal percentage since the All-Star break. And the Raps will have their hands full with Philly tonight.
Neither Embiid nor James Harden carry injury designations into this game. And even though the Raptors' defense has been improved since acquiring Jakob Poeltl, talented big men like Embiid tend to give him trouble.
On top of that, the Raptors rank 28th in the NBA in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, so there could be a big night in store for Harden and Tyrese Maxey from beyond the arc.
The Sixers are a bad matchup for the Raptors at this point and I would lean toward laying the points with the home team.
Raptors vs 76ers Over/Under analysis
It feels like these two Atlantic Division rivals are always playing close, defensive battles, and tonight’s total makes you think it could be more of the same. It hit the board at 225 and the early money has come in on the Under, dropping the number down slightly to 224.
For starters, both of these are now solid defensive teams. Toronto ranks third in defensive rating since the All-Star break while Philadelphia ranks eighth for the season. And the teams' respective intensity levels seem to get turned up a notch in this matchup.
These teams have played three matchups this season. The average combined score of those games was 211.7 and that includes a game that went to overtime. Two of the three meetings would have fallen below tonight’s number.
And lastly, both of these teams like to play at a slower tempo. Toronto and Philadelphia rank 25th and 27th respectively in terms of pace.
Not an official play for me, but I really like the Under here.
Raptors vs 76ers betting trend to know
The Under is 8-2 in the Raptors' last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, and 6-1 in the 76ers' last seven games at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. 76ers.
Raptors vs 76ers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Friday, March 31, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCS-PHI |
