Well. The Toronto Raptors force-fed me my own words.
Yesterday, I picked them to fall short of their team total against the Milwaukee Bucks, and they ended up obliterating it, winning 130-111 — a result few could've seen coming given their first few games.
The question is, can they keep that momentum going as they travel to Philadelphia, taking on Joel Embiid and the 76ers in the second half of a back-to-back?
This will be Toronto and Philly's second game in less than a week with Sixers winning 114-107 just last Saturday. The NBA odds have the Raps as underdogs — can they exact some revenge? Or is Pat Beverley right and they just don’t have that dog in ‘em?
I bring you the best bet for this Atlantic Division matchup in my NBA picks and predictions for the Raptors vs. 76ers on Thursday, November 2.
Raptors vs 76ers odds
Raptors vs 76ers predictions
I feel like I said this 82 times last season. The Raptors make no sense. Toronto looked lost in a 99-91 loss to a bad Portland Trail Blazers team just back on Monday.
The team was scoring just 99.5 points per game and ranked dead last in the NBA in offensive rating heading into last night's game against the Bucks. So, of course, they cook Milwaukee, shooting 56% from the floor, which included going 15-for-38 from 3-point range.
Unfortunately, at this point, there just seems to be no way to predict what the Raptors are going to do from an offensive perspective on a game-to-game basis.
So, for tonight’s matchup against the 76ers let’s focus on the other end of the floor. Thus far this season, we’ve looked at Raps opponents to go Under their team totals on several occasions. But with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey thriving in Nick Nurse’s offense, the Sixers team total of 112.5 doesn’t feel safe. So, instead, let’s look at an individual leading the way for the Raptors defense. That is, of course, Scottie Barnes.
Barnes has looked rejuvenated in Darko Rajakovic’s new system, playing with a ton of energy and active hands at the defensive end of the floor. He now leads a team that ranks ninth in defensive rating, and second in opponent effective field goal percentage.
Barnes has taken on the challenge of defending the opposing team’s best players, which included him doing a solid job when he was guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo last night. Barnes has also done a much better job of using his length and contesting shots. That has resulted in a big 2.4 blocks per game.
Barnes has recorded multiple blocks in four of Toronto’s five games, including two in that Oct. 28 meeting against the Sixers. On top of that, Philly has had a surprising number of shots rejected this season, ranking 20th in opponent blocks per game.
Despite this Barnes block party, we can still get great value on him to reject multiple shots with 2+ blocks sitting at +270 over at PointsBet.
My best bet: Scottie Barnes 2+ blocks (+270 at PointsBet)
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Raptors vs 76ers same-game parlay
Barnes 2+ blocks
Poeltl 8+ rebounds
Harris u1.5 threes
Barnes isn’t the only one who has picked up his game at that end of the floor. Raptors center is also Jakob Poeltl starting to find his groove.
Poeltl has put up back-to-back double-doubles for the Raps and is now averaging 9.0 rebounds per game. Even with Embiid manning the pivot, Philly is just a middle-of-the-pack rebounding team, ranking 12th in rebounding rate. And theoretically, a matchup with Embiid should mean more minutes for Poeltl. I’m adding him to grab eight or more boards tonight.
The Raps have also had excellent perimeter defense. Toronto ranks ninth in opponent 3-point attempts and fifth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. And tonight I think they clamp down on Tobias Harris. Harris is hitting his deep shots at a good rate through three games, but is only taking 3.7 per contest and went 1-4 from three in that previous meeting with the Raps. Close this SGP out by taking the Under 1.5 on his 3-pointers made prop. If all three of these hit, we cash a nice +1,000 bet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Raptors opened this Atlantic Division clash as healthy 8-point road underdogs, and it’s the 76ers who have seen the early action, with the line now sitting at Philadelphia -8.5 with some 9s starting to pop up as well.
And it makes sense. While the Raptors defense has been solid, the offense has been erratic. Even with last night’s shooting performance they still rank 20th in effective field goal percentage. And I believe it’s highly unlikely both Barnes and Pascal Siakam hit four threes apiece in a game. They are also playing their second game in as many nights, with this one on the road.
While the Sixers, who rank third in net rating, have been off since Sunday. Philly has also been kind to bettors early on this season, going 3-0 ATS. But nine points is a lot, and defense travels, so I’m staying away from the spread tonight.
Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 218 and the Under has been hammered, moving the number down to 215.5 as of early Thursday afternoon.
The Raptors generally make for a great Under team with an inconsistent offense and an elite defense. Philly has been solid on defense as well, ranking 12th in defensive rating. On top of that, both teams rank in the bottom third of the NBA in terms of pace.
I get the movement, but is it too low to hop on the bandwagon? No play on the total for me.
Raptors vs 76ers betting trend to know
The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six regular season games when favored by five points or more. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. 76ers.
Raptors vs 76ers game info
| Location: | Well Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, November 2, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBAtv |
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