The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Toronto Raptors in NBA action on Friday night.
The Raps just snapped a six-game losing streak while the Cavs have won five in a row. Oddsmakers are expecting the team with the momentum to pull away and NBA betting odds opened with Cleveland as a 4.5-point home favorite with the Over/Under at 215.
Here are my best free Raptors vs. Cavaliers NBA picks and predictions for December 23.
Raptors vs Cavaliers best odds
Raptors vs Cavaliers picks and predictions
Both of these teams play at a sluggish tempo, with the Cavs last in the league in pace and the Raptors 25th.
They've also been very strong on the defensive end of the floor, with Cleveland leading the league in defensive rating and allowing just 104.5 points per game. Not only is that the lowest number in the league, it's almost 3.0 ppg lower than second-place Philadelphia.
The Raptors are eighth in the league in scoring defense with 110.9 ppg allowed. Although they had a few poor defensive performances when O.G. Anunoby was sidelined with a hip injury, they have improved since he returned to the team this week.
With their best defender back in the lineup, they held the 76ers to 104 points (99 in regulation) on 40% shooting on Monday before limiting the Knicks to 106 on Wednesday.
The Raptors scored 113 points in that game against the Knicks but that was largely due to Pascal Siakam dropping 52 points on 17-25 shooting.
That sort of hero ball isn't sustainable for offensive success long-term and Toronto has one of the worst half-court offenses in the league. The Raptors are just 28th in the league with a 44.9 FG% and that number is inflated by the easy buckets they score in transition.
Expect a slower-paced defensive battle between these teams and bet the Under.
My best bet: Under 215 (-107 at PointsBet)
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Raptors vs Cavaliers spread analysis
The Raptors were on a six-game losing streak before Siakam carried them to a 113-106 win against the Knicks on Wednesday.
They are now four games below .500 and will need to kick things into high gear with trade rumors swirling around their best players. One of those players is shooting guard Gary Trent Jr. (16.9 ppg) who has missed the last four games with a quad injury and is questionable for tonight.
The Raps are 14th in the league in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating. This is a team that struggles to shoot the ball (29th in the league with a 50.6 EFG%) and defend opposing shooters (also 29th with an opponent EFG% of 56.3%).
However, they do an excellent job of forcing turnovers and they make opponents pay by finishing in transition with an NBA-high 17.8 fastbreak points per game. They also rarely turn the ball over themselves, and their league-leading 8.0 extra scoring chances per game is a whopping 3.7 more than second-place Phoenix.
The Cavs have won five in a row and are fresh off a 114-106 win against the Bucks. They now have the third-best record in the NBA at 22-11 and have the best net rating in the league at +6.5.
Cleveland went through a five-game losing streak of its own in mid-November but has gone 13-5 SU (10-6-2 ATS) since then with a net rating of +7.5.
I mentioned how good the Cavs have been defensively but they're also more than capable of filling up the hoop and rank seventh in the league with a 47.9 FG%.
Donovan Mitchell has given them a true go-to scorer with 29.5 ppg while point guard Darius Garland averages 20.7 ppg and 7.8 apg. Big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have been very efficient inside combining for 28.9 ppg on 58.9% shooting. However, Mobley is listed as questionable for tonight with a knee injury.
While both of these teams have been moving in opposite directions over the last couple of weeks, the Raps have owned the head-to-head lately. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings (including two victories earlier this season) although all of those contests took place in Toronto.
Raptors vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis
I already discussed why the Under is my favorite play for today and it's tough to overstate just how bad this Raptors offense has been in the half-court.
They lack a true go-to scorer or shot-creator and often force Siakam into a ball-dominant role that he typically can't live up to (his last game notwithstanding). When defenses focus on him, especially toward the end of games, this Toronto offense often stalls. That's bad news against the top defensive team in the league in the Cavs.
Both offenses also like to soak up the shot clock, with the Cavaliers averaging a league-high 18.3 seconds per possession after a made shot. The Raptors love to run the floor in transition but after a made shot they also play at a snail's pace averaging 18 seconds per possession.
The Under has gone 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams and one of those contests that saw the Over cash was last year on Boxing Day, when the Raps were missing their entire starting lineup due to COVID.
Raptors vs Cavaliers betting trend to know
The Under is 9-3 in Cleveland's last 12 home games while going 4-1 in Toronto's previous five away contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Cavaliers.
Raptors vs Cavaliers game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Friday, December 23, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Sports Ohio |
Raptors vs Cavaliers key injuries
