The Toronto Raptors are believing again after four straight wins and vast improvements defensively, but that resurgence will be put to the test tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the No. 4 seed in the East.
While yesterday’s 95-91 win over the Detroit Pistons didn’t exactly showcase the Raptors as a playoff threat, Nick Nurse’s men are benefiting from having the trade deadline speculation behind them – and they’ve won seven of their last eight games overall to revive their playoff hopes.
The Cavaliers have dropped their last three games to raise a few small alarm bells, but don’t overreact to a mini-skid that has come against some top-tier opponents. Cleveland was blown out in the first half against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday, losing 136-119 despite Darius Garland’s 33-point night.
Get the lowdown on tonight’s matchup with our free Raptors vs Cavaliers NBA picks and predictions below.
Raptors vs Cavaliers best odds
Raptors vs Cavaliers picks and predictions
The arrival of Donovan Mitchell has unquestionably elevated the Cleveland Cavaliers into the upper reaches of the Eastern Conference discussion this season, but don’t sleep on the impact that Darius Garland continues to have on this offense, both as a bucket-getter and playmaker.
For tonight’s matchup, I’m locked in on Garland’s scoring. He’s coming off a big night against the Hawks, with 33 points on 11-for-19 shooting, and he’s been more aggressive looking for his own shot in the past two games (a combined 39 field goal attempts).
Cleveland needs him to stay in attack mode – and he’ll have plenty of chances to get into the paint tonight, especially if Fred VanVleet sits out. Without VanVleet, Nurse may lean more on young backup Jeff Dowtin Jr., a steady on-ball defender but inexperienced against savvy operators like Garland.
Garland may be the hosts’ best path to easy offense here. O.G. Anunoby’s long-armed defense has given Mitchell fits in prior meetings between these teams, and the visitors are well-stocked on the wing to make the Cavaliers’ leading scorer work for his points.
However, Garland’s slippery style will put a lot of pressure on Toronto’s perimeter defense and I expect him to have success getting into the lane for floaters and short jumpers.
Sure, his scoring can fluctuate depending on whether Mitchell gets hot or Evan Mobley is knocking down his jump shot, but this feels like a game where Cleveland will need its point guard to cash in on open looks.
He made four of his eight triples against Atlanta and I like him to hit the Over on this points prop tonight.
My best bet: Darius Garland Over 22.5 points (-125 at PointsBet)
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Raptors vs Cavaliers spread analysis
The Cavaliers have been formidable on their home floor this season (25-7 at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse) and that’s reflected in the line, with Cleveland as clear-cut favorites tonight. That tag would feel even more justified if VanVleet is unavailable again after missing the last two games.
That said, the recent numbers point to the Toronto Raptors as the smart play. Toronto has had the edge in this matchup lately, winning the past four meetings – and the hosts are in the midst of a tough stretch after losses to the 76ers, Nuggets, and Hawks.
The Cavaliers have failed to cover the spread in their last four games while the Raptors have raised their game lately against the league’s top teams, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against winning teams.
Raptors vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis
To some extent, you can throw out Cleveland’s defensive horror show against Atlanta on Friday – an anomaly for a Cavaliers defense that’s allowing the fewest points per game in the NBA.
Even so, the Over is an attractive play here, hitting in the hosts’ last four games and in six of the last seven meetings in Cleveland. It’s also 10-3 in the Raptors’ last 13 road games.
With Pascal Siakam in a groove (29 points against the Pistons, 26 points two nights earlier against the Pelicans), Toronto has a multi-level scorer to trouble the Cavaliers’ imposing frontcourt, and I see the visitors turning in a more polished offensive performance than in yesterday’s rock fight in Detroit.
If you’re taking the Under, Toronto’s up-and-down second unit is likely part of the reason. The bench provided just 20 points yesterday against a slumping Pistons team, and the energy of Chris Boucher and Precious Achiuwa could ultimately swing the Over/Under here.
Raptors vs Cavaliers betting trend to know
Toronto has saved some of its best basketball for the second night of back-to-back sets, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games in that spot, though Nurse will surely have to expand his tight rotation a little here. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Cavaliers.
Raptors vs Cavaliers game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, February 26, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Ohio |
Raptors vs Cavaliers key injuries
