Raptors vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Banged Up Dinos Offense Falls Flat

The Cleveland Cavaliers enjoy a downshift in gears when the Toronto Raptors come to town Sunday.

The Cavaliers have dropped three straight games to three high-powered offenses, falling to the likes of Minnesota, Charlotte, and most recently Philadelphia – blowing a 21-point lead to lose by six to the 76ers on Saturday.

Toronto has failed to score 110 points or more in all but one of its last nine contests and has lost two in a row heading into the weekend.

Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors at Cavaliers on March 6.

Raptors vs Cavaliers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Cleveland hit the board as a 4-point home favorite and climbed to as high as -5 before some buyback down to -4.5. The Over/Under opened as high as 211 points and dwindled to 206.5 with early play jumping on the Under before jumping back to 210.5 points.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Cavaliers predictions

• Prediction: Cavaliers -4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 210.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Toronto team total Under 102.5 points (-106)

Predictions made on 3/6/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Cavaliers game info

• Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Sunday, March 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Raptors vs Cavaliers betting preview

Key injuries

Raptors: Fred VanVleet G (Questionable), Malachi Flynn G (Questionable), OG Anunoby F (Out), D.J. Wilson C (Out).
Cavaliers: Caris LeVert G (Doubtful), Rajon Rondo G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 22-7 in Cavaliers’ last 29 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Cavaliers.

Raptors vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Cleveland has stunned its way to No. 6 in the East on the back of a defense ranked fourth in advanced defensive rating (106.7). Some of the shine was taken off that defensive prowess in the past three games, facing some offensive power punchers. However, Toronto falls into the Cavaliers' laps at the perfect time.

The Raptors are 3-6 SU since February 12, lugging an offensive rating of just 106.7 in that span and playing a pace of 97.67 (21st) during this funk. Compounding that offensive ineptitude are injuries to OG Anunoby and most recently All-Star guard Fred VanVleet, who has missed the past four contests with a knee injury. That’s a lot of energy sucked out of Toronto’s lineup.

Cleveland is all about turning the lights down and enjoying a slow jam, ranked out of one of the more methodical tempos in the NBA (96.92 pace rating – 25th). That patient offense leads to shots late in the shot clock as well as a solid 53.6% effective field goal rate (seventh best).

Not only do the Cavs stick games in the mud with their offensive pace but that high shooting efficiency means opponents have to inbound the ball on a bulk of possessions. That’s poison to a transition team like Toronto, which collects 22 points per game in those playsets – more than 20% of their overall point production.

Cleveland allows a scoring frequency of 49% against transition teams (fifth lowest) and while it did give up points to transition-heavy attacks like the Hornets and Timberwolves recently, the Raptors don’t have the offensive depth of those teams – especially without VanVleet and Anunoby. 

Prediction: Cavaliers -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Toronto’s backcourt is looking thin coming into this contest in Cleveland, as not only VanVleet is dealing with a knee sprain but reserve guard Malachi Flynn – who replaces FVV in the starting five – injured his hamstring in the loss to Orlando on Friday. Those missing guards add to an offensive mess when the Raptors can’t get out and run.

Toronto is not great in the halfcourt set, averaging just over 22 assists per game and posting an average assist per field goal percentage of 0.549 – dead last in the league. Isolation is the Raps’ default setting in the halfcourt, but not having OG hurts and VanVleet’s injury makes him far less dangerous. 

Cleveland’s offense is nothing to write home about either. While efficient, the Cavaliers only hang 106.2 points per home game and will be playing the second of a back-to-back set and their third game in four days come Sunday night. The Cavs also have missing pieces in their backcourt with Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo out. 

Prediction: Under 210.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Raptors' team total for Sunday is sitting at 102.5 points. It doesn’t seem like much but considering the state of Toronto’s backcourt and the rotten matchup against Cleveland, this is a tough total to top for the Raps.

The pace of this game is going to limit the number of scoring chances for both teams, however, it will be felt most by Toronto. Playmaking and shooting in the halfcourt set are dismal with the team firing at less than 43% from the field, including just 30.2% from beyond the arc, over its last three games. 

Toronto is averaging only 104.4 points per game over this 3-6 SU skid and has stayed below 102.5 points in three of the five road stops during that stretch. 

Pick: Toronto team total Under 102.5 points (-106)

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