The schedule breaks in favor of the Toronto Raptors tonight, even if they have to go on the road for that edge. The Cleveland Cavaliers played a competitive game Saturday against the Lakers. A fourth-quarter Cavaliers collapse cost them the win on a night that also saw their point guard leave with a neck issue.
Still, NBA odds have the Cavs slotted in as slight two-point favorites.
If there is ever a moment for the Raptors to steal a game in the Eastern Conference, this may be that moment. Let’s find the clearest Toronto edge in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Raptors vs. Cavaliers on Sunday, November 26, with tip set for 7:30 ET.
Raptors vs Cavaliers odds
Raptors vs Cavaliers predictions
Do not overlook the importance of this game. The Cleveland Cavaliers had higher aspirations this season, but 16 games is enough of a sample size to say they just might be a play-in team in Year 2 of the Donovan Mitchell Era. And if that is true, then Cleveland and the Toronto Raptors are peers this season, peers competing for the most volatile of seedings.
Winning this game could have significant springtime ramifications, even if it is still November.
And no Raptor is more vital to winning this season than Scottie Barnes. To quickly frame his impact, he leads Toronto with 1.8 win shares this year, 0.4 ahead of No. 2 on the team, Jakob Poeltl. Or, if you prefer the age-old Value Over Replacement Player, Barnes is worth 1.1 points per 100 possessions compared to a replacement player, the highest on the team and 0.7 ahead of next up — again Poeltl — per Basketball Reference.
This isn’t news to anyone who has watched the Raptors this year, but it goes to show the coming emphasis on Barnes is especially applicable today. Toronto knows it needs to win, and it knows who will help make that happen.
Barnes’ impact has extended well beyond points. In fact, it is most noticed defensively, relative to the rest of the roster, and a significant chunk of that has been his rebounding. Barnes grabs 21% of available defensive rebounds, trailing only Poeltl’s 24.1% among players who see regular leading minutes.
Barnes is averaging 9.1 rebounds per game, grabbing eight or more in 13 of 16 this season, including 10, 12, and eight in his last three games.
Yet his rebounding prop continues to be set at 7.5. If you think that is a reflection of the Cavaliers tonight, then remember that Cleveland played just one night ago and its roster is devoid of athletic wings who gather rebounds like Barnes does. Only Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley consistently grab boards for the Cavs, and they just played 37 and 36 minutes, respectively, on Saturday.
With Cleveland weary and Barnes knowing this game matters, enjoying this suppressed rebounding prop is a great way to spend a Sunday night.
My best bet: Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds
Jakob Poeltl Over 8.5 rebounds
Raptors moneyline
All those Cleveland doubts tonight on the glass apply to crediting Poeltl, as well. If Allen and Mobley are at all sluggish, and a back-to-back should not be taken too lightly, it will be to Poeltl’s benefit.
He has grabbed nine or more rebounds in eight of his 16 games this season, including 10 or more in three of his last four and four of his last six.
Add in the questionable status around Darius Garland — he played just 14 minutes on Saturday before a neck strain sidelined him — and there should be added value in the Toronto moneyline tonight.
By no means should anyone be finding restored Raptors faith as they seek a third-straight win, but the offensive competence shown in the last week stands out. Winning three of four and averaging 130.3 points in that stretch transcends the quality of the opponent or lack thereof.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
Look-ahead lines pegged the Cavaliers as four-point favorites before the tight game against the Lakers and Garland’s injury dropped this to -1.5 on Saturday night, a number that may have been a slight overreaction — but not by much — before settling at -2 and -2.5, depending on your sportsbook.
The total also moved with Garland’s possible absence and Cleveland’s overall fatigue, jumping from 217.5 before last night’s game to 220.5 on Sunday morning and 221.5 early Sunday afternoon. Then again, that may be further recognition of Toronto’s recent offensive surge.
Raptors vs Cavaliers betting trend to know
The Raptors are 4-2 against the spread as underdogs of four points or fewer this season, while the Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS as favorites of four points or fewer. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Cavaliers.
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Raptors vs Cavaliers game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, November 26, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Ohio |
Raptors vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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