Raptors vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Toronto's Offense Doesn't Fare Well on Road

The Toronto Raptors have an interesting schedule down the stretch after taking care of business in consecutive games against the Hornets. Now, they travel to a new city to do the same thing all over again, except this time the opponent will be a little tougher.

Toronto will play its next two games at TD Garden against the Boston Celtics, who are currently the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, and a win tonight would mean the Philadelphia 76ers wouldn’t be able to catch them in the standings.

The Raps, on the other hand, will be in the play-in tournament and could still chase down the Miami Heat for the seven seed and a much sought-after home game. That will be easier said than done.

I break down this Eastern Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for the Raptors vs. Celtics.

Raptors vs Celtics best odds

Raptors vs Celtics picks and predictions

This is an interesting spot for these Atlantic Division foes. Both the Raptors and Celtics will be playing the second half of a back-to-back where they were in a different city last night, each with something to play for.

The Celtics are coming off a hard-fought 103-101 loss as four-point underdogs in Philadelphia last night, moving the 76ers to just two games behind Boston for the East's second seed with three games to play.

Meanwhile, Toronto dominated the Hornets in back-to-back meetings in Charlotte but still sits in the ninth spot in the East. It would definitely like to pass the Heat for the seventh seed, which means a home playoff game and two chances to qualify for the full playoffs.

With both sides fighting for seeding, this should be an intense and closely contested game. Unfortunately, that doesn’t bode well for this Raps’ offense.

Much has been made about Toronto's struggles on the road and in the halfcourt this season. It isn’t the same team away from home as they are in Canada (beatdowns of a Charlotte team that doesn’t care don’t count). The Raptors are just 14-25 on the road this season and rank 23rd in scoring at just 112.1 points per game. 

When the Raps' offense slows down, they just don’t have the shot-making ability to have sustained success. Even though they have seen some improvement since acquiring Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, the team still ranks 26th in effective field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage since coming out of the All-Star break.

Now, they’ll go up against a Celtics team that ranks fourth in defensive rating, and Toronto has certainly had its struggles scoring when going up against the East’s top teams.

The Raptors are averaging just 106.7 points per game over 13 matchups against the Celtics, Bucks, 76ers, and Cavaliers. Not surprisingly, all four rank in the Top 10 in defensive rating. They’ve also topped 110 points just four times over those 13 games, with one of those against the Giannis-less Bucks.

With the Raptors team total sitting at 110.5, my best bet in this matchup is going to be on the Under.

My best bet: Raptors Team Total Under 110.5 (-115 at PointsBet)

Raptors vs Celtics spread analysis

The Celtics opened this matchup as modest 5-point home chalk but it’s the Raptors have seen the early money, moving the line to Boston -4 as of early Wednesday afternoon.

A glance at that line and it feels like Toronto is being overvalued here. Despite winning eight of their last 11 games, the Raps don’t have too many notable wins over that stretch with two of those three losses coming against the 76ers and Bucks.

Part of the reason for this low line has to be for fear of the Celtics resting players after last night’s battle with the Sixers. Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart have both been added to the injury report as questionable for tonight’s matchup.

Meanwhile, Toronto is nowhere near as deep as Boston and really can’t afford to rest guys. The only key rotation piece who may not suit up is Gary Trent Jr. who is also questionable (but that also helps out our Under on the Raps team total).

This is really one of those situations where you need to wait and see until almost tipoff to see who is actually in and out of this matchup before making a wager on the spread. That said, the Celtics are exactly the type of team that gives the Raptors the most problems, having two wins over them this season. 

As long as all of Boston’s starts don’t sit this one out, I’d lean toward the Celtics. 

Raptors vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup hit the board at 225 and the early money is on the Under, moving the number down to 224. Since I’m already on the Raptors to have a low-scoring output in this matchup, I would lean toward the Under on the full-game total as well.

While the Celtics have one of the best offenses in basketball, their shooting legs could be a little heavy after last night’s game against the Sixers. They are going up against a Raptors defense that has been much better in the second half of the season, ranking in defensive rating since coming out of the All-Star break.

These teams also seem to always play tight, low-scoring games, with both meetings this season having seen an average of 218 points per game. Throw in two teams who rank in the bottom half of the NBA when it comes to pace of play and this game should fall Under this total.

Raptors vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Under is 19-7 in the Raptors' last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record and 10-2 in the last 12 in the same situation for the Celtics. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Celtics.

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