On a football-less Sunday, NBA betting takes center stage and a non-conference clash between the Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies headlines the NBA odds board.
Memphis is trying to get right in the midst of a dismal 1-7 SU stretch (2-6 ATS) that goes back to January 20, but that’s easier said than done. The Grizzlies are missing some key contributors for this home stand with Steven Adams out, Dillon Brooks suspended, and Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant listed as questionable for Sunday.
Toronto is also trying to find consistency in the dead of winter. The Raptors are 4-6 SU and ATS in their last 10 games, but are coming off a victory at Houston on Friday and are trying to wrap this current four-game Western road trip with a win.
I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for this East vs. West contest and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Raptors at Grizzlies on February 5.
Raptors vs Grizzlies best odds
Raptors vs Grizzlies picks and predictions
Toronto forward Pascal Siakam has something to prove when his team heads to Memphis tonight. Siakam was left off the Eastern Conference NBA All-Star Game roster and pointed at himself as the reason for the snub.
"It is what it is, I just have to look at myself in the mirror and do everything I can to be in a position where it's not a debate,” Siakam told reporters on Friday.
The versatile 6-foot-8 forward is set up to be in that position tonight, with the Grizzlies shorthanded at least two frontcourt starters and potentially down two elite rim protectors. Memphis center Steven Adams is injured, forward Dillon Brooks is suspended, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable with a thigh injury, leaving the paint unprotected.
Siakum’s point total for Sunday is set at 24.5 points – a mark he hasn’t eclipsed in five straight outings. Siakum has played Under this scoring prop total in each of those outings, but books aren’t discounting his projected points vs. Memphis – a telling number which sits as high as 25.5 points at some operators.
Siakum finished with 23 points on 10 of 20 shooting in Friday’s win at Houston, but a slow start hampered his production. He missed a pair of layups and had a turnover early into that game, which helped keep him below the scoring total of 25.5 points.
Despite that recent downtick, Siakum is enjoying a career year in terms of offensive output, averaging just under 25 points per game while firing at a 47% clip and playing an NBA-high 37.7 minutes an outing. He’s a threat within the Raps’ transition offense but can also create his own looks and leads the team with 12.4 points in the paint per outing.
He scored 25 against the Grizzlies back on December 29, shooting 8-for-19 from the floor but getting to the free throw line for a 9 of 11 count on freebies and finishing with 12 points in the paint. He played 38 minutes and eventually fouled out.
With OG Anunoby sidelined, Siakum is the standout scorer in Toronto’s frontcourt and faces a thinner Memphis interior defense, with 7-footer Santi Aldama and 6-foot-7 Xavier Tillman gets starting minutes. The Grizzlies forward rotation could be a mess tonight with Adams and Brooks out for sure.
Cleveland was able to get close-range looks against Memphis last time out, scoring 64 points in the paint. I expect the Raptors to lean on a snubbed Siakum to do damage inside, especially if Jackson is out or slowed by injury. Some books have already ticked his total up to 25.5 points, so shop for the best vig on Siakum Over 24.5.
My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 24.5 points (-125 at PointsBet)
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Raptors vs Grizzlies spread analysis
The Grizzlies opened between -3.5 and -5.5 at sportsbooks on Saturday night and the market consensus of -4.5 settled in as more operators hit the board on Sunday morning. That spread has slimmed to -3.5, despite the status of Memphis’ stars looking more positive.
According to the Memphis Commercial Appeal, Ja Morant didn’t appear limited with a wrist injury in Saturday’s practice and his questionable designation could be more precautionary. Recently named All-Star forward Jaren Jackson also appeared mobile Saturday while dealing with a sore thigh.
Toronto is playing without standout forward OG Anunoby, who is ruled out for the last game of this road trip due to a wrist injury.
The Grizzlies’ offensive issues are the biggest blemish during this eight-game funk, with the team plummeting in terms of offensive rating. Granted, all but two of those games have come on the road. Memphis sees a near six-point dip in production in the role of visitor and four of those six road opponents ranked Top 8 in advanced defensive rating.
The Raptors are on the far end of that scale, sitting 23rd in defensive rating on the season. Those woes have been extrapolated over the past 10 outings, with Toronto watching opponents shoot close to 51% from the floor and average 116.5 points per game in that span – a tick up from the season average of just 111.7 before that skid.
This current slide has dropped Memphis to 24-26-2 ATS on the season, including a 15-9-1 ATS mark inside FedExForum. Toronto comes into Sunday with a 26-28 ATS record overall and is 11-16 ATS on the road.
Raptors vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under total opened at 229.5 points and has since climbed to 231.5.
The opening number already accounted for the absence of Memphis center Steven Adams inside and if Jackson is sidelined, the Grizzlies would be without their top rim protectors. That would drastically change how Memphis defends, especially not being able to press and cheat on the perimeter without those shot blockers to back them up inside.
Not having those bigs inside changing shots and clearing the glass could also trickle down to the Grizzlies’ transition offense. If Toronto can take advantage and score high-percentage shots, Memphis will be forced to start more offensive sets from the inbounds.
Both teams lean into transition to fuel their scoring, with the Grizzlies and Raptors ranked out as No. 3 and No. 6 in scoring frequency in transition, respectively. However, Memphis plays at a more frenetic tempo, sitting at No. 5 in pace rating.
The updated status of Morant and Jackson will have a huge impact on this total in the hours before tipoff, as the Grizzlies are already stretched thin in terms of depth with Adams and Brooks out. Memphis’ reserves haven’t produced up to standards during this road-heavy eight-game skid, averaging just under 30 points and shooting a dismal 40.8% since January 20.
The Raps aren’t great at taking their own medicine, ranked out Bottom 5 in points allowed per play to transition attacks while watching those offenses push for a scoring frequency of 53.1%. The best defense for Toronto in tonight’s game is taking advantage of any gaps in the Grizzlies' defense and getting to the paint for easy looks.
These teams played each other at the end of December, with Memphis winning 119-106 in Toronto which stayed Under the closing total of 230.5 points. Both Adams and Jackson were in action and the Raps shot just 41% from the floor, including a 10-for-28 day from beyond the arc. The Grizz outscored the Raptors 70-50 in the paint.
As for total results on the season, Memphis is the second best Under bet in basketball at 23-27-2 O/U, including 1-7 O/U in the last eight games, but 12-11-2 O/U inside the FedExForum. Toronto owns a 31-23 O/U count, including a 7-3 O/U record in the past 10 outings, and is 17-10 O/U on the road.
Raptors vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
Toronto is 14-6 Over/Under in non-conference games this season – a 70% Over winner. Memphis is 13-7-1 O/U against Eastern foes – a 64.3% clip for non-conference Overs. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Grizzlies.
Raptors vs Grizzlies game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, February 5, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Sports Southeast |
Raptors vs Grizzlies key injuries
