The Toronto Raptors hope a change of venue can snap their current funk, heading on the road to face the Atlanta Hawks with a four-game losing skid in tow.
Toronto tips off a six-game road trip in Atlanta, which is mired in a four-game slide of it own. The Hawks have allowed those four foes to average 130 points, including a 148-143 defeat to the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Doncic’s 73 points on Friday.
At least one team is going to get right in the ATL tonight. But which one?
I break down the NBA odds for this Eastern Conference clash and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Hawks on Sunday, January 28.
Raptors vs Hawks odds
Raptors vs Hawks predictions
The Toronto Raptors' freefall isn’t too surprising considering the overhaul to the roster over the past month. Adding to those inconsistencies is a lingering ankle injury to center Jakob Poeltl, who has missed the past nine games and appears to be sidelined yet again on Sunday.
With the 7-footer out of commission, the Raptors have been bullied on the boards, with their rebound rate sliding from 50.3% (15th) to 45.9% (30th) in those nine games. Toronto is watching foes clean the glass for nearly 47 total rebounds per game, with 11.3 of those coming on the offensive end.
That sets up well for Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson. He’s averaging more than eight rebounds an outing and can take advantage of a soft Toronto interior tonight.
Player projections for Johnson’s work on the glass range from 6.6 to 9.7 rebounds, with the bulk of models coming in above his rebounding prop total of 8.5 Over/Under. My number comes out to 9.2 boards for the 6-foot-8 forward, with a higher ceiling based on matchup and pace of play.
The Hawks play one of the quicker tempos in the league (fifth-highest pace rating) and fire up a league-high 93.1 field goal attempts (they’re shooting just 43.4% in the past nine games) while sucking opponents into that tempo and prompting 91 FGAs from rival teams.
The Raptors offense is very disjointed since the franchise shook up its core roster to start the new year. Toronto has been off the mark from outside (35.5% from 3-point range) and will be without guard Immanuel Quickley, who has been a playmaker for Toronto since arriving from the New York Knicks at the start of the month.
The significant spike in the total — jumping from 234.5 to 240.5 points — lays out a quicker game script with plenty of shots going up. That means more rebounding opportunities, especially with neither side shooting very well.
I like at least nine of those wayward shots to find their way into Johnson’s hands on Sunday night.
My best bet: Jalen Johnson Over 8.5 rebounds (-115 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Hawks same-game parlay
Jalen Johnson Over 8.5 rebounds
Hawks moneyline
Clint Capella Over 1.5 blocks
With Poeltl still on the mend, the glass is wide open for a cleaning from Johnson.
The Hawks need a big home win to snap their skid and get the taste of Luka’s 73 points out of their mouths. They're terrible against the spread at home, but should at least come through on the outright odds.
Toronto scores the sixth-most points in the paint and those attackers will find Clint Capella protecting the Hawks’ rim.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
Toronto’s struggles aren’t confined to just the last four games, and that’s driving the opening spread of Raptors +6.5.
Toronto has only had one win in the past nine contests as the franchise hit the reset button earlier this month with a series of trades. The Raptors have managed to cover the spread only three times in that span and are 6-16 SU and 10-11-1 ATS on the road this season.
The Hawks’ home-court performance hasn’t been great, dropping to 8-13 SU after the loss to Dallas and sliding to 4-17 ATS inside State Farm Arena — the worst home record against the spread in the NBA. Defense is the main culprit, with Atlanta ranked 27th overall in advanced defensive rating and allowing 124.8 points per game as a host.
That half-baked defense could be just what the Raptors need. Toronto has suffered a power outage over those last nine games, sitting 22nd in offensive rating and mustering just under 111 points in that stretch.
Unfortunately, Toronto could be missing plenty of firepower — or what little firepower it has left — to open this road trip. Newly-acquired guard Immanuel Quickley is out with a quad injury and center Jakob Poeltl is doubtful with a bum ankle after missing the previous nine games — a big catalyst for the Raptors’ nosedive.
Tonight’s Over/Under has seen some massive movement since hitting the board at 234.5 points on Saturday night. That number has been adjusted as far as 240.5 points at some sportsbooks. According to Covers Consensus, 57% of picks are backing the Over.
Toronto is 23-22 O/U on the season, with a 14-8 O/U record on the road. However, in the wake of those notable player moves, the Raps have played Under in six straight outings heading into Sunday.
Atlanta is 25-20 O/U including a 13-8 O/U count at home. The Hawks have topped the total in their previous two games but stayed below the closing total in seven straight games before those results.
Raptors vs Hawks betting trend to know
Atlanta is the worst home ATS bet in the NBA, with a 4-17 ATS record inside State Farm Arena. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Hawks.
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Raptors vs Hawks game info
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, January 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Southeast |
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