The Toronto Raptors continue to be one of the best bets in the NBA but if they want to continue that tonight against the Miami Heat, they’ll have to do so without Scottie Barnes.
The Raps' franchise player will be sidelined for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury, but that means my Raptors vs. Heat predictions are targeting RJ Barrett, who is having a career year and stepped up the last time Barnes was out.
Check out my NBA picks for this Eastern Conference matchup ahead of its 7:30 p.m. tip on Sportsnet on Thursday, December 12.
Raptors vs Heat prediction
My Raptors pick
RJ Barrett Over 30.5 points + assists (-115 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
The Toronto Raptors may not be getting a ton of wins but they continue to compete. They enter this game on a three-game losing streak but have covered the spread in four of their last five and are 17-8 ATS for the season.
Unfortunately, they’ll be without Scottie Barnes. The former Rookie of the Year is sidelined again, this time with an ankle injury that is expected to keep him out for several weeks.
Luckily, the Raptors have RJ Barrett. Barrett is thriving in his first full season with his hometown team. The 24-year-old is averaging 23.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists and he isn’t afraid to put up a few more shots with Barnes out.
Barrett is averaging 17.9 field-goal attempts per game this season when Barnes is on the floor and 19.6 when he’s out. He's tallied 31+ points four times in the 11 games that Barnes missed earlier in the season.
Another area Barrett sees a boost is with his playmaking. His assists bump up from 5.8 to 6.6 per game when Barnes is out. All that to say, I think Barrett is primed for a big game against the Miami Heat.
The Raptors have played the Heat twice in the last couple of weeks and Barrett has been a problem. Barrett went 10-for-18 for 25 points while adding six rebounds and seven assists back on Nov. 29. He followed that up by going off for 37 points on 15 of 20 shooting with seven rebounds and six assists on Dec. 1.
The Heat are playing well, winning three in a row against the Lakers, Suns, and Cavaliers. But this group isn’t as stingy as we’ve grown accustomed to, ranking 11th in defensive rating and 13th in opponent field goal percentage. Teams willing to make the extra pass have been rewarded, with the Heat ranking 22nd in opponent assists per 100 possessions.
Mix in Jimmy Butler trade rumors and the Heat may not be as cohesive as their three-game winning streak says. That has me looking at Barrett’s points + assists prop which is on the board at 30.5. Barrett has eclipsed this number in 10 of his last 13 games, including in both games against the Heat. Let’s back him to have a great all-around game and go Over this number again.
Raptors vs Heat same-game parlay
RJ Barrett Over 24.5 Points
RJ Barrett Over 5.5 Assists
RJ Barrett Over 6.5 Rebounds
We’re going to separate the points and assists in this same-game parlay and complete this Barrett SGP party by adding his rebounds.
Barrett’s rebounding prop is 6.5 and he’s been putting more work in on the boards lately, upping his average to 7.6 over his last seven and has hauled down seven or more five times during that period.
On top of that, the Heat haven’t been great on the glass, ranking 19th in rebounding rate and allowing the third-most rebounds per game.
RJ stuffs the stat sheet tonight and cashes this SGP for us.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Heat odds
Raptors vs Heat live odds
Raptors vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +11 | Miami -11
- Moneyline: Toronto +525 | Miami -750
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada
Raptors vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors opened as 11-point road underdogs, but early bettors have backed the Raps, moving the spread to 10 as of early Thursday afternoon.
- While they did split two recent games with the Heat, the Raptors failed to cover as 8-point underdogs in the matchup in Miami.
- The total hit the board at 222.5 and has crept up to 224.5.
- By nature, the Raptors are an Over team, with their high pace of play and ranking 22nd in defensive rating. Both recent matchups with the Heat easily went Over this number.
Raptors vs Heat trend
The Raptors have covered the Spread in 21 of their last 31 games dating back to last season for +10.00 Units and a 29% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.
How to watch Raptors vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, FDSN - Sun |
Raptors vs Heat latest injuries
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