Raptors vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Raps Grind Out Defense-First Cover

On Wednesday night, the Toronto Raptors have the tough task of visiting one of the NBA's hottest teams in the Dallas Mavericks. 

Dallas has taken its performances to the next level, especially on the defensive end, and has won nine of its last 10 games ahead of this one. If there's a team well-equipped to match the Mavs' defensive intensity, however, it's Toronto.

So, do the Raps have value as a live underdog? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Mavericks on January 19.

Raptors vs Mavericks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Raptors opened this matchup as 4.5-point road underdogs but have seen the early action, moving the number down to 3.5. The total is the lowest on the NBA betting board today, sitting at about 207.5 depending on the book.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Mavericks predictions

• Prediction: Raptors +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 207.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Porzingis Over 1.5 made threes (+105)

Predictions made on 01/19/2022 at 2:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Mavericks game info

• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Wednesday, January 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSW-DAL, SN

Raptors vs Mavericks betting preview

Injuries

Raptors: Khem Birch C (Out), Gary Trent Jr. SG (Questionable).
Mavericks: Reggie Bullock SG (Questionable), Maxi Kleber PF (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Raptors’ last five games overall and 21-7-1 in the Mavericks’ last 29 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Mavericks.

Raptors vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Raptors are going through a weird stretch at the moment. They have lost three of their last four games overall, but each game is a little unique. 

A hard-fought loss where they covered the spread against the Suns ended their six-game winning streak. Then there is the inexplicable loss to the Pistons, followed by a big win over the Bucks the very next night. And then last time out was another close loss to the Heat.

Now, the Raptors should be in for another tight game as they go against the red-hot Mavericks. Dallas has won nine of its last 10 games thanks to a defense that ranks first in the NBA over that stretch. 

But while the defense for the Mavericks has been ferocious, the offense is still struggling. Dallas ranks 18th in offensive rating and it all starts with Luka Doncic. The Mavs’ do-it-all point guard is having his worst year since his NBA debut His scoring is the lowest it's been since his rookie season and his 3-point and effective field goal percentage are career lows.

The Raptors have also picked it up on the defensive end, ranking 10th in defensive rating over the same 10-game stretch, and face a Mavericks team that, despite going 9-1 in its last 10 games, still ranks just 17th in effective field goal percentage over that span.

Toronto on the other hand rank 11th in offensive rating over its last 10 games and is close to having its full rotation back in this one. 

The Raptors should be able to match the Mavericks' intensity on defense and have had the better offense recently. That should be enough for them to keep this close so, we’ll take the points.

Prediction: Raptors +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

At 207.5, the total for this matchup is the lowest on an NBA betting board with 13 games to bet on. But is that low enough to consider betting the Over?

While the Raptors have been the more efficient of the two offenses lately, they have still put up just 97.8 points per game over the last five games. Now, they face a Mavericks team that leads the NBA in defensive rating and opponent field goal percentage, and is giving up just 94.3 points per game since the calendar flipped over to 2022.

Meanwhile, the Mavs are scoring just 106.1 points per game during their 9-1 stretch with the Raptors giving up 103.4 over the same stretch.

With two offenses that are streaky and defenses that can get after it, we’re still leaning Under despite the low number.

Prediction: Under 207.5 (-110)

Best bet

Another Maverick who has struggled this season has been Kristaps Porzingis. He is shooting a career-low 28.9 percent from 3-point range this season, but that might just create some value in one of his player props against the Raptors.

Porzingis is a tough matchup against the Raptors — who can struggle with stretch fours — and their aggressive style of defense can lead to a lot of opponent 3-point looks for opponents. In fact, the Raptors rank 22nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. 

Porzingis should get some opportunities to let it fly in this matchup, and we're getting plus money on the over 1.5 made threes. Despite his struggles, he’s gone Over that number three times in the last five games and hit two threes in the earlier matchup against the Raps back in October.

Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 made threes (+105)

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