The Toronto Raptors are about to go from facing an elite defensive team to an elite offensive one in the span of 24 hours.
The Raptors were stymied by the Orlando Magic last night but now they’ll have to put their offense into overdrive if they have any hope of keeping up with Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers. Case in point — the Pacers are coming off a ridiculous 157-152 win over the Atlanta Hawks last night.
The NBA odds have the Raps as 3.5-point road underdogs for this evening's second half of a back-to-back. I'll break down this Eastern Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks for Raptors vs. Pacers on November 22.
Raptors vs Pacers odds
Raptors vs Pacers predictions
The Toronto Raptors are coming off a predictable 126-107 defeat at the hands of the Orlando Magic as Toronto continues to struggle against strong defensive teams.
Well, the Indiana Pacers ain’t that...
Indiana’s high-octane is arguably the best in the NBA, as the Pacers lead the league in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and pace. Heck, did you see the final score of last night’s game against the Atlanta Hawks? A 157-152 barnburner.
So, yeah. The defense has certainly looked optional at this point in time for the Pacers, and the numbers say that too. Indiana ranks 29th in defensive rating, 21st in opponent-effective field goal percentage, and 30th in scoring defense — allowing 125.9 points per game.
But where the Pacers are really getting killed is in the interior. Indiana ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent points in the paint per game and it’s by a fairly wide margin. That means I'll be targeting Jakob Poeltl’s point total on Wednesday night.
Poeltl may not be a great fit with this new Raptors system, but he certainly has been efficient. The Raps’ big man is averaging 10.9 points per game on 70% shooting from the floor on the season and has up 12 points per game over his last 11 games.
Poeltl’s point total is sitting at 10.5 for this matchup, which is a number he’s eclipsed eight times over that 11-game stretch. I like the Raptors center to make it nine of 12 thanks to this juicy matchup against the Pacers.
My best bet: Jakob Poeltl Over 10.5 points (-120 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Pacers same-game parlay
Jakob Poetl Over 10.5 points
Over 239
Pacers first half -1.5
As always, our same-game parlay tips off with my best bet, which for this matchup is Poeltl to go Over 10.5 points. However, he won’t be the only one scoring in this game.
As noted, the Pacers score in bunches and play little defense, which is a big reason why the Over has gone a whopping 12-1 in their games this season.
And while the Raptors have struggled against strong defenses, they have proven they can put up some points against lesser foes. In six matchups against the Pistons, Bucks (x2), Wizards, Mavericks, and Spurs, they are averaging 124.1 points per game with the Over going 5-1 in those games.
Let’s close this SGP out with the Pacers using that offense to head into the break with a lead. Although the Pacers haven't excelled as a first-half team, the Raptors have struggled even more, especially when playing on the road.
Toronto has the fifth-worst average scoring margin on the road this season at -8.5. Take the Pacers on the first-half spread.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread for this Eastern Conference clash has seen some interesting movement already. The Raptors opened this matchup as 3-point road dogs and it was the Pacers who saw the early money, moving the line up to -4. But since then, there has been some buy-back on Toronto with the line sitting at Raptors +2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
If you want to make the case for the Raptors as dogs, it would have to be because of their 12th-ranked defense. However, usually when playing a back-to-back, the defense can be the first unit to slip off.
Even facing a subpar Pacers defense, I find it difficult to support the Raptors' scoring unit, which currently ranks 25th in offensive rating. I'm ultimately staying away from betting on Toronto on the spread, especially given its status as short-road underdogs in this matchup.
That said, the Raps offense should do enough when it comes to the total, even with the O/U listed at 239. I broke down in my SGP why the Over has a chance here, and at the very least, I’m not fading the Over in a Pacers game at this point.
Raptors vs Pacers betting trend to know
The Pacers have hit the full game Over in 10 straight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Pacers.
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Raptors vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 22, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Sports Indiana |
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