Raptors vs Spurs Picks and Predictions: Barnes Continue to Thrive With Toronto

The Toronto Raptors survived the gauntlet that was their October schedule managing to go 4-3. Now, as the calendar flips over to November, the matchups lighten up a little, starting with a trip to Texas to take on the San Antonio Spurs Wednesday night.

But while many expected San Antonio to be among the front runners in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, it seems that someone forgot to tell it that. The team is 5-2 straight up and against the spread. 

That said, Toronto is a step up in competition and NBA odds have it laying seven points in this matchup. Can the Raps take care of business and cover this spread, or will San Antonio continue to surprise?

I break it all down and give you my best bet in my NBA betting picks and predictions for the Raptors vs. Spurs.

Raptors vs Spurs best odds

Raptors vs Spurs picks and predictions

The Raptors did pretty much as well as they could have hoped in October with a 4-3 record which was composed of matchups vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, Brooklyn Nets, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, and Atlanta Hawks.

They were able to do so thanks to the white-hot start of Pascal Siakam, a tenacious and high-IQ defense, and the continued development of Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes. 

Barnes has begun the year averaging 15.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists and you can tell that he’s been working on his shooting. Barnes went 5-for-7 from 3-point range his last time out.

Another reason the Toronto brass was so high on Barnes was because of his positional versatility. With Fred VanVleet missing the team’s last game with back soreness, Barnes put on his point guard cap and became the Raptors' primary ball-handler. 

The impact was immediate. Barnes filled the box score, going for 21 points with eight assists, and seven rebounds. 

VanVleet is questionable for this matchup, and since it's early in the season (and the Spurs), it would not be surprising for Toronto to hold VanVleet back another game to make sure he’s 100%.

Now Barnes and the Raptors face a Spurs team that — despite getting off to a good start — lacks depth, is a little banged up, and unlike the Raptors, benefited from a soft October schedule. 

San Antonio is okay on the glass, ranking 16th in rebounding percentage and 23rd in opponent assists per game. Back Barnes to stuff the stat sheet once again and take the Over on his rebounds + assists NBA player prop at decent plus money.

My best bet: Scottie Barnes Over 12.5 Assists+Rebounds (+110)

Raptors vs Spurs spread analysis

Toronto hit the board for this matchup against San Antonio as a 7-point favorite and has been bet down a half-point to 6.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. However, I’m not entirely sure why.

The Raptors enter this game coming off a dominating 139-109 victory over the Atlanta Hawks to improve their record to 4-3 — made all the more impressive with VanVleet on the sidelines. But Toronto's length and depth showed out in that game as Siakam, Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. all put up at least 21 points. 

The Raptors also did an excellent job of shutting down the Hawks’ dynamic guard duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, limiting them to just 34 points on a combined 10-for-28 (35.7%) from the field. 

That defense ranks 11th in defensive rating and first in steals per game and should pose a problem for the Spurs. Yes, they have surprised with their 5-2 start and are an equally impressive 5-2 against the spread, but they had the benefit of a soft schedule.

The toughest opponent was arguably a lethargic Philadelphia 76ers team, or a Minnesota Timberwolves team that thinks guarding the 3-point line is overrated. 

Gregg Popovich has done a good job to create an exciting offense but this complex Raptors defense is exactly what could fluster a young team. A team that has the second-highest turnover rate in the NBA,

With Devin Vassell out and Keldon Johnson questionable, San Antonio will be pushing the limits of its already thin depth. I would lean toward laying the points with the Raptors.  

Raptors vs Spurs Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 225.5 and the early money has come in on the Under, moving the number to 224.

This may feel like a high total for a Raptors game. The team ranks 24th in scoring, putting up just 109.7 points per game over their first seven contests. That’s because the half-court offense can get stagnant if they don’t move the ball, playing at the third-slowest pace in the NBA.

But you saw what this team can do when they face a team that has trouble hanging on to the ball and they get out in transition. In recent games against the Hawks and Sixers, they put up 139 and 119 points respectively. 

Now, they face a Spurs team that turns the ball over a ton and ranks 20th in defensive rating. Mix in an offense that has been surprisingly efficient so far this season that ranks 11th in offensive rating and the third-highest pace, I would lean toward the Over here.

Raptors vs Spurs betting trend to know

The Under is 23-9 in the Raptors' last 32 road games dating back to last season. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Spurs.

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