It is a bit disconcerting to see the Toronto Raptors slip into a tank, but that has become the present reality for a franchise headed toward just its second losing season in the last 11 years. It may be as unexpected to see the Oklahoma City Thunder atop their conference already, but that, too, is reality.
The Thunder should have little trouble tonight, even if the NBA odds spread has fallen to single digits. Toronto has three more games on this seven-game Midwestern road trip, even further suggesting reason to doubt the lone Canadian franchise.
But one NBA player prop seems inflated tonight, and I explain why in my free NBA picks for the Raptors vs. Thunder on February 4.
Raptors vs Thunder odds
Raptors vs Thunder predictions
The Toronto Raptors defense has unsurprisingly fallen off since trading O.G. Anunoby and then Pascal Siakam. It should not shock anyone that Toronto’s defensive rating has been in the Bottom 5 of the NBA since January 1. Scottie Barnes can do only so much, even when flanked by length like RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Bruce Brown.
The Raptors are now flirting with odds of landing in the 2024 NBA Draft’s Top 5. The losing will continue.
But that length at least shows up on the perimeter. Toronto’s 3-point defense is perfectly middling, a step forward compared to its overall defense. The Raptors rank No. 11 in 3-point attempt rate since Jan. 1 and No. 14 in 3-point percentage against.
That should bother Chet Holmgren tonight. The 7-foot-1 rookie deserves more Rookie of the Year consideration than he gets right now. Since Jan. 1, Holmgren has averaged 15 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks while shooting 51.7% from the field and 36% from deep.
The Oklahoma City Thunder would not be sitting atop the West without Holmgren’s consistency.
But let “consistency” be the driving word there. In his last 12 games, Holmgren has scored more than 18 points exactly once while scoring fewer than eight just once, as well.
He is more likely to grab double-digit rebounds (four times in the last seven games) or block at least four shots (three times in the last nine games) than he is to near 20 points.
With Toronto chasing Holmgren off the line tonight, his points will suffer. Exactly 30% of Holmgren’s points have come from beyond the arc since Jan. 1, a sustainable rate but also a large enough one that any dip tonight will doom his points prop.
My best bet: Chet Holmgren Under 18.5 points (-110 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Thunder same-game parlay
Chet Holmgren Under 18.5 points
Chet Holmgren Over 7.5 rebounds
Thunder team total Over 124.5
All due respect to Jakob Poeltl — and the seven-year veteran deserves a bounty — but even if he plays at 100% tonight, will he be able to single-handedly keep Holmgren off the glass? That may be the ask as the Raptors roster transitions.
Poeltl missed 11 straight games before playing 20 minutes on Friday night at Houston. The blowout loss cut into Poeltl’s return, but he still grabbed only five rebounds in that action.
Barrett averages 7.1 rebounds in a Toronto jersey and Brown has pulled down 6.1 boards per game since his arrival, but no one else on the roster has crashed the glass well lately. Thus, Holmgren should get his, and in an up-tempo game, there will be plenty of chances.
Since Jan. 1, the Raptors rank No. 10 in pace in the NBA with the Thunder at No. 13. Those may seem middling numbers, but with two teams in the top half of the league, that could escalate.
That pace should also help propel Oklahoma City past its team total. Doubting Toronto’s defense of late is an obvious choice. Doubting it further on this road trip makes plenty of sense. Expecting it to crumble in an up-tempo game is the cherry on top of this same-game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
The Thunder opened as 10-point favorites early on Saturday afternoon, a number that fell to -8.5 by early Sunday morning. That may have tied to Poeltl optimism or perhaps bettors realized Toronto did not play through its 29-point loss at Houston on Friday.
The total opened at 236.5 before falling as low as 234.5 or 233.5, depending on your sportsbook of choice, in Saturday’s latest hours. And then it fired up to 238 on Sunday morning.
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Raptors vs Thunder betting trend to know
Toronto is 2-5 against the spread since trading Pascal Siakam on Jan. 18. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Thunder.
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Raptors vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Sunday, February 4, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Oklahoma |
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