Raptors vs Thunder Picks and Predictions: No Shock but OKC Keeps It Close

The red-hot Toronto Raptors will go for their seventh win in a row when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night. 

The Raptors have covered the NBA betting spread in each of those six games, but they were never even close to double-digit chalk in those matchups. Can they cover as big favorites against a depleted OKC team, or do the Thunder have value as a home dog?

Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Thunder on February 9.

Raptors vs Thunder odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Raptors opened this matchup as 9.5-point road favorites and were quickly pushed to -10. Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 207.5 and the Under has been hammered, moving the number all the way down to 204.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Thunder predictions

• Prediction: Thunder +10 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 204 (-110)
• Best bet: Siakam Over 14.5 rebounds + assists (-105)
• Best bet: Dort Over 2.5 made threes (-135)

Predictions made on 2/9/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Thunder game info

• Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• Date: Wednesday, February 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, BSOK

Raptors vs Thunder betting preview

Key injuries

Raptors: No key injuries to report.
Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G (Out), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl PF (Out), Aaron Wiggins SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-3 in the Raptors' last nine games overall and 7-1-1 in the Thunder's last nine games versus a team with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Thunder.

Raptors vs Thunder picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Raptors come into this game red-hot, winners of six in a row straight up and against the spread thanks to tenacious defense and an offense that is starting to catch up. 

Fred VanVleet is now an All-Star and Pascal Siakam is playing like one, averaging 23.3 points while shooting 49.2% from the floor, including 38.4% from three, while adding 9.3 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game over 23 contests since the middle of December.

But it’s the chemistry of those guys along with Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby, and rookie Scottie Barnes that makes this team fun to watch. In fact, the Raptors rank 10th in the NBA when it comes to net rating since the start of 2022. That said, double digits are a lot to cover.

While the Thunder already have their sights set on next season and beyond, this is still a gritty bunch that doesn’t lack effort, particularly on the defensive end. OKC ranks a respectable ninth in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating.

The Thunder have also made it a habit of making opposing teams work for wins when they are big favorites, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as double-digit dogs.

I feel like the Raptors get the win tonight but asking for a victory of 10 or more points seems like a bit much. Take the points.

Prediction: Thunder +10 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The total of 204 is the lowest on the NBA board today by a fairly wide margin, and while the early money has come in strong on the Under, it has driven the number down enough to consider the other side.

Now, we are getting a total this low because this game features two good defenses and only one team that features what would be called an offense, but the Raptors should be able to do the heavy lifting here in order to send the game Over the number.

The Raps rank 10th in the NBA in offensive rating over their last eight games, putting up 117.3 points per game. Now, they’ll face a Thunder defense that while good, has slipped a bit recently, allowing 110 points or more seven times over the last 10 games.

And even though the Thunder have arguably the worst offense in the NBA they have made due recently, even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, averaging 105 points per game over the last seven games. They should also have some opportunities to his some threes against an aggressive Raptors defense that can leave people open on the perimeter.

Lu Dort and Josh Giddey should be able to do enough to make sure the Thunder do their part to hit the Over.

Prediction: Over 204 (-110)

Best bet

Dort's duty

Speaking of Dort, the Thunder shooting guard has taken it upon himself to carry the offensive load for the Thunder with SGA on the shelf. 

Dort has upped his output, taking 16.3 shots per game over the last six games, including 8.4 from beyond the arc. He is hitting 40.4% of those 3-point attempts and has hit three or more threes five times over his last six games.

We mentioned an aggressive Raptors defense. Well, that aggression leaves players open on the perimeter at times and as a result, the Raps rank 20th in opponent 3-point percentage. With Dort being the best scoring option going for the Thunder we like him to go Over his made threes prop here.

Pick: Lu Dort Over 2.5 made threes (-135)

Getting spicy

We’re not stopping there. We also talked about Pascal Siakam’s elite level of play since the middle of December. Not only is Spicy P scoring, but he’s also racking up the rebounds and assists. Over his last eight games, Siakam is averaging 10.3 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game.

While the Thunder are solid defensively, they struggle on the boards ranking 24th in rebounding rate and dead last in opponent rebounds per game. At the same time, they rank 23rd in opponent assists per game.

Look for Pascal to have another well-rounded performance here and go Over his rebounds + assists total of 14.5. A number he’s gone Over five times in the last eight games.

Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 14.5 rebounds + assists (-105)

Pages related to this topic