Simply put, the Toronto Raptors have not lived up to expectations. The latest disappointment comes in the form of a matchup where they allowed a Milwaukee Bucks offense without Giannis Antetokounmpo to put up 130 points.
The roller coaster season continues with a trip to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves, who are dealing with their own set of issues. The Wolves have been hit with a rash of injuries and could be shorthanded for this matchup.
The Raptors are currently laying 5.5 points in this matchup but have really struggled to cover as favorites recently. Will Toronto come through as a chalk play, or does Minny have value as an underdog?
I break it all down in our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Timberwolves on January 19.
Raptors vs Timberwolves best odds
Raptors vs Timberwolves picks and predictions
Fred VanVleet perfectly encompasses the Raptors' uneven play as a team this season. VanVleet has had hot streaks but generally has had a poor shooting season. He's also been batting through injuries, so it’s been tough to find his rhythm.
That makes VanVleet’s last two games super interesting. I don’t know if Nick Nurse just took VanVleet aside and told him to let it fly, but that’s exactly what he’s done.
VanVleet has taken a whopping 53 shots — including 25 3-pointers — in the two games against the Bucks and Knicks, taking at least 23 shots in each contest. That’s a big jump up from his 15.2 field goal attempts per game this season, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him keep that up tonight against Minnesota.
The Timberwolves are arguably the worst team in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3-ball. Whether it is the way they collapse on the ball when Rudy Gobert is playing or the slack coverage on the line, Minny gives up a ton of open looks from deep. In fact, the Wolves currently surrender the sixth most 3-point attempts per game while ranking 28th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
We are getting great plus money for VanVleet to hit four or more shots from deep for a third straight match. When FVV gets hot, he can be one of the best shooters in the NBA.
My best bet: Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+140 at PointsBet)
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Raptors vs Timberwolves spread analysis
As someone who watches every Raptors game, they continue to get betting lines that baffle me. There have been at least four instances in the last nine games where the Raptors were favored when they shouldn’t have been. When they were betting chalk of -2 at Indiana, -5.5 vs. Milwaukee, -4 vs. New York, and -7.5 vs. Atlanta, they lost all four of those games outright.
While I think Toronto should probably be favored in this matchup against the Timberwolves, laying 5.5 on the road shouldn’t make any bettor comfortable.
As I’ve noted many times, the Raptors have been way too inconsistent this year. Their half-court offense is streaky at the best of times, and the team ranks dead last in the NBA in effective field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting percentage, which is specifically what you need to take advantage of against a team like the T-Wolves. Even though I like VanVleet to stay hot from beyond the arc, the team as a whole has proven to be unreliable.
The other reason the Raps are laying so many points is the Minnesota injury report. As of Thursday afternoon, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Taurean Prince, and Austin Rivers are all questionable, with Karl-Anthony Towns already listed as out.
The Wolves have played well on offense as well, ranking 12th in offensive rating and sixth in effective field goal percentages over their last five games.
With Minny going against a Raptors defense that has taken a step back of late (see 130 points given up to a Giannis-less Bucks team), this is either a stay away or siding with the home underdog and the points.
Raptors vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis
The total for this NBA matchup hit the board at 229, and the early money has come in on the Over, bumping the number up to 231 as of Thursday afternoon.
Generally, I tend to think of the Raptors as an Under team with their combination of a shaky offense and usually stout defense. However, that just hasn’t been the case lately. Since the start of January, the Raptors are surrendering 115.8 points per contest and rank 26th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage in nine games played.
Unfortunately, it's hard to know what you’re going to get out of the Wolves at this point due to their current injury report. If they are close to full health, I would lean to the Over, but I’m staying away for now.
Raptors vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Timberwolves.
Raptors vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, January 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSN-N, Sportsnet |
Raptors vs Timberwolves key injuries
