Rockets vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: Absent Defense Leads to Big Scores

The Los Angeles Clippers will continue their quest on Thursday night to make a legitimate playoff run without stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George when they face off against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets, losers of six straight and 10 of 11 — plus five straight on the road — are in dire shape as the last-place team in the West. To put it frankly, the Clippers will need to take care of business on Thursday if they're serious about their postseason aspirations.

Continue reading for more free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Rockets vs Clippers game on Thursday, February 17th.

Rockets vs Clippers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Clippers opened as 10-point favorites and have since moved to -11. The total opened at 226 and has since been bet up to 229.5 by the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Rockets vs Clippers predictions

• Prediction: Clippers -11 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 229.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Over 229.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/17/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Rockets vs Clippers game info

• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, February 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSC, ATTSN-SW

Rockets vs Clippers betting preview

Key injuries

Rockets: Christian Wood C (Questionable), Kevin Porter Jr. G (Questionable), Dennis Schroeder G (Questionable).
Clippers: Norman Powell F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rockets have played 6-1 to the Over in their last seven, and the Clippers have played 11-4-1 to the Over in their last 16. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Clippers.

Rockets vs Clippers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The beauty of betting is that even bad teams can be palatable if they can provide value by covering. The Rockets, in that regard, have not been that during their skid. They've lost 10 of their last 11 and have failed to cover in just one less game during that stretch. In those nine games they failed to cover against the spread, they did so by an average of 11.6 points.

Maybe the market is just asleep at the wheel when it comes to the Rockets. After starting 15-12 ATS, Houston has gone 8-22 in the 30 games since. During that time, Houston has been the worst team by net rating and defensive rating. To illustrate how bad the defensive side of things has been, the gap between Houston and the 29th ranked team is the same as the gap between the 29th and 22nd ranked team. Pretty bad, right? It gets worse.

Houston is simply a careless team that lacks discipline. The Rockets allow a whopping 22.5 points off turnovers, which (you guessed it) ranks dead last. To again illustrate how hilariously bad their mark is, the gap between them and the 29th ranked team is the same size as the gap between the 29th and 3rd ranked team. And no, that is not a typo of "23rd." They are also dead last during that time in points allowed in the paint as well as on fast breaks.

And sure, the Clippers are not exactly lighting the world on fire as of late, but they've had a lot to juggle in the last two months. Paul George went down on December 22nd and hasn't played. The following weeks were difficult as Ty Lue made adjustments to the rotations, but they walked away with a respectable 4-6 record in the ensuing ten games. Since January 11, the Clippers have played 18 games and only four have been at home. They've gone 3-1 in those home games with the lone loss coming against the reigning champion Bucks.

They return home after a quick trip to Phoenix and will be back on the road for seven of the following 10. They will be without Norman Powell, who they just acquired two weeks ago. While the timing is less than ideal, the Clippers still have more talent top to bottom than the Rockets. Throw in the fact that Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood are still questionable after missing last night's game and Dennis Schroeder joins them with an Achilles injury, and the gap is potentially even wider.

Prediction: Clippers -11 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The market seems similarly asleep on the Rockets' totals as it's been with their spreads. The Rockets played 12-5 to the Under to start the season but have since gone 28-11-1 to the Over. That includes playing 6-1 to the Over in their last seven. Some have seemingly caught on given that the total sits at 229.5 after opening at 226, but most of that action came on low limit overnight numbers.

The Clippers have played 11-4-1 to the Over in their last 16 as well. It's worth noting, however, that they've only played in one game with a total as high as tonight's, and that was in the third game of the season. Nevertheless, during those last 16 games, the Clippers have seen an average total of 217.1 and a median total of 216.8, and their average margin has been nine points with the median being six.

In other words, they are comfortably playing above their set totals and their defense is very likely the culprit. Between the trade for Powell and Covington two weeks ago and injuries they've sustained along the way, there have been several shifts in the rotation, which has likely put a lot of strain on the defense. Prior to that 16-game stretch, the Clippers ranked fourth in defensive rating and they've ranked 21st since.

Prediction: Over 229.5 (-110)

Best bet

Although it is tempting to take the points against a Rockets team that hasn't shown much of anything in months, the Clippers' recent struggles on defense can make it difficult to widen a margin of victory. For this reason, it's better to take a look at the total. Both teams are also playing in their third game in four nights, with the Rockets in particular on a traveling back-to-back.

It may not feel the greatest betting into an Over of 229.5 when the total opened at 226, but much of that movement came overnight on low limits. The "true" opener when limits were drastically increased this morning was 228. With that in mind — and with all of the information laid in front of us — the Over is the best play.

Pick: Over 229.5 (-110)

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