Rockets vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Houston, We Have No Offense

MLK Day closes with a Western Conference clash when LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers host the Houston Rockets.

It’s an interesting handicap spot in the sense that both teams are playing the second half of a back-to-back, but neither team had to travel.

L.A. is trying to salvage its season as it continue to battle without Anthony Davis, but it has lost three in a row heading into this matchup. They are still 5.5-point favorites because Houston can’t achieve liftoff and has dropped 10 straight.

Is fading the road team the easy play here, or is there a bet with more value? I break down this Western showdown and bring you my best bet in my NBA betting picks and predictions for the Rockets vs. Lakers.

Rockets vs Lakers best odds

Rockets vs Lakers picks and predictions

The Lakers aren’t a great defensive team (particularly without Davis on the floor), but they aren’t terrible either. Los Angeles ranks 17th in defensive rating and the team has picked up its play even further of late, pulling that ranking up to ninth over the last 10 games. And if the Lakers put in the effort at that end of the floor tonight, they should have success.

That’s because Houston has a real problem when it comes to offense. The Rockets rank dead last in the NBA in offensive rating, 29th in scoring offense, 29th in effective field goal percentage, and 29th in 3-point shooting percentage. That ain’t great.

Houston’s team total for this matchup is at a rather hefty 115.5, a number the Rockets have not eclipsed once during this 10-game losing streak.

Houston also ranks in the bottom half of the NBA when it comes to pace of play. All those things considered, this team total for the Rockets seems a touch too high. 

My best bet: Rockets team total Under 115.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Rockets vs Lakers spread analysis

The Lakers opened this Western Conference matchup as 6.5-point home favorites but it’s been mostly Rockets money since then. The line quickly jumped from the opening number to 5.5, and then jumped to Lakers -4 as of Monday afternoon.

That’s saying something considering Houston has lost 10 games in a row and has covered the spread just once over that stretch. 

If the Rockets have a chance to make an impact in this matchup and end that streak, they need to do what they do best — crash the boards. It may surprise you to know they have the second-best rebounding rate in the NBA.

And without Anthony Davis guarding the paint, the Lakers are certainly susceptible on the glass. L.A. ranks 16th in rebounding rate and 26th in opponent rebounds per game, so, Houston should have an edge there.

But the Rockets’ offense just makes it hard to have faith in them. They’ve covered just three spreads since December 15. 

Rockets vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

The total has also seen quite a bit of movement, hitting the board at 234.5 and getting bet all the way up to 236. However, since then, the total has dropped down as low as 233.5, and I would tend to agree with the latter movement. I am on the Rockets to fall below their team total and as such, I would lean toward the full-game Under as well.

Houston’s offense just doesn’t deserve a number this high. It scores less than 110 points per game, and the Lakers' defense has adjusted to life without AD. 

Meanwhile, Los Angeles' offense without AD (are you starting to see a pattern here) is nothing to write home about, ranking 20th in offensive rating. One of the best ways to take advantage of this Houston defense is with the 3-ball — something the Lakers are woeful at — ranking 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. 

Like I said, even at the new number, this total is too high for this matchup.

Rockets vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Rockets have played the second half of a back-to-back and is 5-2 in the Lakers' last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Lakers.

Rockets vs Lakers game info

Rockets vs Lakers key injuries

Pages related to this topic