The Toronto Raptors not only play an exciting brand of basketball, but they are coming through in a big way through their backers through the early part of this NBA season, going 8-3 against the spread through their first 11 games.
The Raps will return home to host the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night, where they will be 9-point NBA odds favorites. That’s the most chalk Toronto has seen this season. Can the Raptors cover the big number with All-NBA forward Pascal Siakam, or will the upstart Rockets prove too pesky?
I break it all down and bring you my best bet in NBA picks and predictions Rockets vs. Raptors.
Rockets vs Raptors best odds
Rockets vs Raptors picks and predictions
The Raptors enter this game with this 6-5 record after splitting a home-and-home with the Chicago Bulls. That isn’t bad considering they had to navigate a gauntlet of an early-season schedule and now a groin strain to All-NBA forward Pascal Siakam that will keep him out at least two weeks.
But while Siakam is out for the next little while, the Raptors are clearly happy to have a healthy Fred VanVleet back in the lineup after missing three games with a back injury. And the All-Star point guard has had no problem shouldering more of a scoring load in Pascal’s absence.
Prior to his injury, VanVleet was attempting 11.3 shots per game. That’s a meager number considering he jacked up nearly 10 threes per game a season ago. But in his first two games back on the court with no Siakam, Steady Freddy has averaged 28.5 points per game while shooting 47.8% from 3-point range.
Now, he’ll face a Rockets team that has a whole mess of problems when it comes to giving up buckets. Houston ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating, 21st in opponent 3-point percentage, and 20th in points allowed to opposing guards.
With VanVleet going for 30 and 27 points in his first two games since returning from injury sans Siakam, he looks like a great bet to go Over this reasonable point total against the Rockets.
My best bet: Fred VanVleet Over 19.5 points (-139 at PointsBet)
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Rockets vs Raptors spread analysis
As noted, the Raptors opened as 9-point favorites for this matchup against the Rockets — the most points they have laid this season. The previous high was when the Raps were 6.5-point road chalk against the San Antonio Spurs last week.
But that game was with Siakam. Can they do it without him?
The short answer is yes.
While Pascal is a huge part of what the Raptors do, this is a team through and through. The Raptors are well-coached, have depth, and most importantly, play an aggressive, intelligent style of defense.
Toronto is a long and athletic team that can switch on anybody and does a great job of disrupting passing lanes. As a result, the team ranks sixth in the NBA in defensive rating and leads the league in steals per game, by a fairly wide margin. That’s a key stat going against a Rockets team that sits next-to-last in the NBA in turnover rate.
Houston enters this matchup at just 2-9 straight up but is a respectable 6-5 ATS, so it's putting up more of a fight than its record indicates. That said, the Rockets might be overmatched in this game against the Raptors.
The offense is still trying to find itself with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. leading the way, but it's the defense that has really struggled. The Raptors' halfcourt offense isn’t great, but it could look better against the 28th-ranked Houston defense.
And even without Siakam, the Raps still have VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. to lead the offense.
The Raptors' depth and tenacity on defense should be enough to lead them to a win and cover on Wednesday night.
Rockets vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
The total for this NBA matchup hit the board at 223.5 and my gut is to lean toward the Under, but I’m not too confident in saying that.
The Raptors' defense is definitely capable of shutting down a Rockets team that ranks 25th in offensive rating and 26th in effective field goal percentage. But the Rockets have taken off a bit in the last two games, putting up at least 117 points in each.
Then there is the Raptors' offense, which ranks 23rd in effective field goal percentage and 22nd in pace. But what has me staying away from a play here is that I can easily see a scenario where the Raptors rack up transition points off turnovers.
Combine that with a bench that will put in the effort no matter the score, and there's a good chance the Raptors can do the heavy lifting here.
Rockets vs Raptors betting trend to know
Nick Nurse knows how to get his team to bounce back. Dating back to last season, the Raptors are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight-up loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Raptors.
Rockets vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 9, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet SW, TSN |
Rockets vs Raptors key injuries
