Sunday's NBA betting action sees the 6-11 San Antonio Spurs and the 4-10 Los Angeles Lakers face off with both teams seeking a much-needed win.
The Spurs will aim to end a four-game skid before their season slips into oblivion, while the hapless Lakers attempt to build a little momentum in the win column with LeBron James still on the injury list.
These are the kinds of games that the Lakers must win in order to claw themselves out of their early six-game hole, and if they can’t take care of business against this sputtering Spurs team, their season might already be finished.
My NBA picks and predictions for Spurs vs. Lakers highlight the return to form of Anthony Davis — and why his strong play should continue against the Spurs on Sunday.
Spurs vs Lakers best odds
Spurs vs Lakers picks and predictions
After a 2-10 start, the Los Angeles Lakers' season was teetering on the brink. A five-game losing streak was punctuated by LeBron James exiting the lineup with an adductor injury and the vultures began to circle overhead.
However, sublime play by Anthony Davis has sealed back-to-back wins for the Lakers, and if they’re to have any chance to resurrect this season, it will be because Davis’ recent return to the level of a Top-10ish NBA player is here to stay.
The outside jumpshot might be gone for good, but Anthony Davis is still an All-World two-way talent. The Lakers’ overall misfortune has obscured the fact that AD is averaging the most points (25.3) since 2019-20 on an effective field goal percentage of 55.7%, which would be a career-best.
Davis is averaging 29.8 points per game over his last five, but he’s scored 38 and 37 in his last two games, respectively. Demonstrating just how punishing AD has been on the block, he generated 21 free throw attempts in his previous game against the Detroit Pistons, nailing 19 of them. He’s drawing more fouls per 100 possessions than at any point in his career.
The Spurs are also at a rest disadvantage that is almost unheard of in the modern NBA. While the Spurs are on a back-to-back, for the Lakers, Sunday’s game will only be their second game in seven days. That layoff was exactly what the often-ailing Davis needed to get his back right, and his recent scoring outburst against the Pistons proved it.
There’s not much to admire about the once-proud Spurs or Lakers at this moment in time, but Anthony Davis’s renewed domination inside the arc is a diamond in the rough and is my best bet for Sunday’s contest.
My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 27.5 points (-102)
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Spurs vs Lakers spread analysis
After a promising start, reality has set in for the San Antonio Spurs. They’re plucky, they’re young, and they’re playing damn hard, but they are up against a talent deficit so high in almost every game that even playing to their peak capabilities rarely gives them a chance to win, let alone cover.
They’re missing one of their better players in Devin Vassell, whose shooting off of movement provides desperately-needed spacing for a Spurs team with the seventh-worst shot profile in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.
They’ve sunk to a -9.5 net rating on the year, only a short notch above the Detroit Pistons who seem destined for the league’s worst record.
The Spurs might give them some run, however, as over the last two weeks, they’ve dropped to a -11.3 net rating, the equivalent of playing at around a 17-win pace over an 82-game season. And to make matters harder on them, they had to play the Los Angeles Clippers just last night.
The Lakers are missing LeBron and they’ve deeply flawed themselves, but this Spurs team should not be competitive with them. Russell Westbrook has been a positive impact player since moving to the bench, and Anthony Davis has been on a tear with James out of the lineup.
At -7, I’m not loving this line for the Lakers just because their record against the spread is so miserable (4-10) on the year, even though this Spurs team is playing worse than anyone in the NBA at the moment.
Spurs vs Lakers Over/Under analysis
The offenses might not be overly impressive (Lakers rank 27th, Spurs rank 25th) but they’re relatively competent when compared to how these teams have been playing on the other side of the ball.
These have been two of the three worst defenses in the NBA over the past two weeks, with the Spurs playing so poorly that they’ve dropped to 30th in defensive rating on the year.
Davis is having a renaissance season for Los Angeles on the defensive end, including his best defensive rebounding percentage since his New Orleans Pelicans days and block and steal rates that rank in the 80th percentile or higher among bigs. But if he ever was a one-player Top-10 defense, those days have surely sailed.
The Spurs make a lot of mistakes and outside of Jakob Poeltl and Jeremy Sochan, they’re bereft of above-average defenders. They’re also going to be playing on heavy legs on the second night of a back-to-back and never underestimate the added exhaustion that a night in Los Angeles can have on a team of players this young.
At just 227.5, I’d have to go with the recent trends toward Lakers Overs. The Over is 6-1 in the Lakers' last seven home games and 4-1 in their last five overall.
Spurs vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the Lakers' last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Lakers.
Spurs vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, November 20, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports San Antonio, Spectator Sports, Sportsnet |
