Spurs vs Pelicans Picks and Predictions: McCollum Carries Offensive Load for NOLA

The New Orleans Pelicans have hit a small bump in the road over the past week, but a home date tonight against the San Antonio Spurs provides a golden opportunity to get back on track.

The Pels have lost four in a row after a brief spell at the top of the Western Conference standings  — and are now without star man Zion Williamson, who has entered the league’s health and safety protocols. 

Meanwhile, this continues to be a developmental year for San Antonio, but it's coming off a 124-105 win over the Houston Rockets last time out, sparked by Devin Vassell’s 26-point night.

Check out our free Spurs vs Pelicans NBA betting picks and predictions for everything you need to know ahead of tonight’s showdown.

Spurs vs Pelicans best odds

Spurs vs Pelicans picks and predictions

Since arriving in New Orleans at last season’s trade deadline, C.J. McCollum has settled into more of a point guard role than he had in Portland when sharing the backcourt with Damian Lillard. With Williamson, Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas and numerous other capable scorers on this Pelicans roster, New Orleans’ biggest need was a playmaker.

McCollum has embraced that role, but tonight presents a rare opportunity for him to tilt his game back toward “score first” mode while having the ball in his hands more than ever. He seems to have weathered an early-season shooting slump and has scored 27 points or more in each of his last three games.

Williamson’s absence means there are at least 15 field goal attempts up for grabs — and I expect McCollum to grab a chunk of those (he’s already trending in that direction with 68 combined shots in his last three games). His minutes could see a slight uptick too.

The former Trail Blazer was spectacular in a losing effort against the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday, finishing with 31 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds. If he did that against a long-armed Milwaukee defense, McCollum should feast on a San Antonio defense that makes the kind of mistakes you’d expect from a young group.

The McCollum props that combine points and assists or points and rebounds are worth a look too, but I’m taking his straight-points prop tonight and counting on him to set the tone early with his jump shot.

My best bet: C.J. McCollum Over 24.5 points (-119)

Spurs vs Pelicans spread analysis

While the Pelicans are without Williamson and Ingram tonight, Willie Green has the benefit of one of the league’s deepest rosters — and so it’s no surprise to see that the hosts are still 8.5-point favorites.

Look for New Orleans to put smaller lineups around Valanciunas here, especially if Larry Nance Jr. is ruled out. That would mean the host loses a little of its rebounding edge, but putting more shooters on the floor should at least bump up its 3-point attempts (a category where the hosts continue to struggle).

With the Spurs positioning themselves for the number one pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Gregg Popovich is letting his team play with freedom. Ironically, that’s led to steady performances in December, with San Antonio 4-2 in its last six games.

The Spurs are 5-1 ATS over those six games, while the Pelicans have failed to cover the spread in their last four outings. But that doesn’t factor in the urgency that the hosts should bring as they try to snap their losing streak.

Spurs vs Pelicans Over/Under analysis

The total points line is a tough one to call given that neither team is entering with its full offensive arsenal. On the one hand, the numbers lean towards the Over, which has hit in the Pelicans’ last five games following an ATS loss and in four of the Spurs’ past five games overall.

But, while New Orleans is well equipped to re-shuffle its rotation, Keldon Johnson’s likely absence puts a sizeable dent in the San Antonio offense. Vassell moved into the starting line-up in Houston on Monday and took full advantage, knocking down 10 of his 17 shots, including five 3-pointers. But he can’t do it alone.

Don’t underestimate this New Orleans offense just because of the big-name absences. McCollum is a proven bucket-getter while Valanciunas flexed his muscles with a 37-point outburst against the Bucks. Valanciunas’ matchup with Jakob Poeltl, his former Toronto Raptors team-mate, will be one to watch.

Spurs vs Pelicans betting trend to know

The Spurs have been reliable in covering the spread on their prior visits to New Orleans, delivering ATS success in their last seven games in The Big Easy. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Pelicans.

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