Spurs vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: VanVleet Keeps Launching From Distance

The Toronto Raptors could look like a very different basketball team come this time tomorrow. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. have all had their names thrown around in potential deals ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline.

Who leaves and who stays is anyone’s guess at this point but for now their focus shifts to tonight’s opponent, the San Antonio Spurs. The Raps play their first home game in over two weeks and are double-digit favorites vs. a Spurs team that has lost nine in a row.

Can the Raps cover all that chalk? Or is there a better play to be found? I break down the matchup and bring you my best bet in NBA picks and predictions for the Spurs vs. Raptors.

Spurs vs Raptors best odds

Spurs vs Raptors picks and predictions

The Raptors return home after a season-long seven-game road trip that has to be deemed a success, considering the way their season has gone thus far. Toronto went 4-3 straight up on the road trip but that probably didn’t do enough to turn the Raps from buyers to sellers ahead of tomorrow’s trade deadline.

One of the players who keeps getting brought up in potential trades is point guard Fred VanVleet. VanVleet has been a key piece to this Raptors team since their 2019 championship run but he can opt out at the end of the season and he’s due a longer payday. Plus, he’s a talented shooter who can play defense — something any contender would want.

Mr. Bet on Yourself has turned his season around after a rocky start. VanVleet was shooting just 32.5% from 3-point range over his first 35 games of the season, but over the last 11 that has bumped to 39.8% over his last 11 games. This is much more normal for a guy who is a career 37.6% shooter from three.

Steady Freddy will have a great opportunity to keep up those numbers tonight against the Spurs. San Antonio allows opponents to shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc this season. That’s the worst mark in the NBA by a fairly wide margin.

VanVleet has drained four or more threes seven times over the last 11 games. I’m betting VanVleet continues to improve his trade value and hits four or more threes tonight, in what could be his last game as a Raptor.

My best bet: Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+105 at PointsBet)

Spurs vs Raptors spread analysis

The Raptors opened this matchup as hefty 10.5-point home favorites and have since been moved to -11. To me, that just feels like too much chalk, even against a team that has lost nine games in a row straight up and has failed to cover the spread in eight straight.

One of the reasons Masai Ujiri and the Raptors’ brass are considering blowing things up is because the roster as currently constructed has been wildly inconsistent.

Scoring has been a little better lately, but this team still lacks reliable shot creation and as a result, the half-court offense can really struggle. The team ranks next-to-last in the NBA when it comes to effective field goal percentage this season.

While a team that is supposed to be known for its defense has also seen that slip and now ranks 18^th in defensive rating, 28^th in opponent field goal percentage and 29^th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. This is a bad Spurs team but there are worse offenses in the NBA.

The Raptors are a mediocre 4-5 ATS when laying seven or more points this season and lost three of those games outright. Making them hard to trust as a heavy favorite. I’m staying away from the spread in this one.

Spurs vs Raptors Over/Under analysis

While I don’t have a strong feeling for the side, I would certainly lean one way on the total. The number hit the board at 234 and has been bet down to 232 but the new total may be low enough to attack the other side.

Thanks to guys like VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. shooting the ball a little better of late, and the continued impressive play of All-Star snub Pascal Siakam, the Raptors' offense has shown some improvement over the last few weeks. The team now ranks 11^th in the NBA in offensive rating and their 116.5 points per game over the last 10 games are in the top half of the league over that span.

The Raptors' offense should continue to trend upward against the Spurs because while their offense might be the worst in the NBA, their defense arguably is. San Antonio ranks dead last in defensive rating, opponent field goal and 3-point percentage, and scoring defense, allowing 122.6 points per game.

The Spurs' offense meanwhile puts up 112.6 points per game and isn’t the worst shooting team in the NBA, ranking 16th in field goal percentage. They also play at a high tempo ranking eighth in the NBA in pace. So, they’ll have a chance to get some buckets against a Raptors defense not playing its best, and that will be missing its best defender in OG Anunoby.

I’d lean toward the Over here.

Spurs vs Raptors betting trend to know

The Over is 12-2 in the Spurs' last 14 road games and 7-2 in the Raptors' last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Raptors.

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