Suns vs Hawks Picks and Predictions: Hawks Soar Over Resetting Suns

The Phoenix Suns are preparing for a new era after making a blockbuster trade, but they won’t have their latest weapon on the floor just yet when they visit the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night.

The Suns (30-26) acquired Kevin Durant and T.J. Warren from the Brooklyn Nets overnight, though Durant won’t be available for tonight’s game. The Hawks (27-28) have yet to make any deadline deals, though there’s still time for that to change before tonight’s game.

While Phoenix will be far more formidable down the stretch with Durant, it’s heading into Atlanta shorthanded due to the trade and a number of injuries. We’ll discuss how that impacts tonight’s game in our NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Hawks on Thursday, February 9.

Suns vs Hawks best odds

Suns vs Hawks picks and predictions

Like the Dallas Mavericks before them, the Suns are taking advantage of the crumbling Nets core by bringing in a new superstar. Kevin Durant will get the chance to play alongside Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and company as they make a push to get far away from the play-in tournament this postseason.

But while this trade is great for Phoenix in the long run, it poses some significant challenges for the Suns tonight. Phoenix will be without many of its best players, Durant and Warren included. Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, and Landry Shamet are all missing in action as well, while the Suns traded away Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Jae Crowder.

Put all those factors together, and there’s not much of a roster for Phoenix to draw on tonight. Ayton and Chris Paul are still around, and that should give the Suns a credible lineup, especially as Ayton should once again find success against an Atlanta defense that gives up lots of points in the paint. But being this shorthanded will quickly wear on Phoenix tonight.

Meanwhile, the Hawks come into tonight’s game entirely healthy. Trae Young is averaging 26.8 points and 10 assists per game, and will have his full complement of weapons available for this tilt against the undermanned Suns. 

It’s not as though the Hawks haven’t found success against the Suns already. Just last week, Atlanta scored a 132-100 victory in Phoenix in what was one of the best performances of the year for the Hawks. If the Suns are looking for revenge, they’ll be hard-pressed to pull it off in State Farm Arena tonight. While the Suns have won five of six, the only loss came to Atlanta, and they are playing with a very different team for tonight’s game.

Obviously, the spread on this game moved on the news of the Durant trade and the knowledge that the Suns would be playing with a short bench. Yet while the change in the line was significant, I don’t think it’s nearly enough to capture how out of sorts Phoenix will be tonight. 

If Booker was playing, this might be a different story. But the fact that Monty Williams is giving his best scorer a night off — a reasonable decision given that Booker is only just returning from the knee injury he suffered in December — tells me he sees this as something of a throwaway game. The Suns will be a force to be reckoned with in the Western Conference, but they’ve set themselves up for a very long night on Thursday.

My best bet: Hawks -7 (-108 at Unibet)

Suns vs Hawks spread analysis

Tonight’s line opened with the Hawks as a four-point home favorite. The news of the Durant trade and Phoenix’s short roster for the game pushed the spread significantly in Atlanta’s favor, and Hawks -7 is now the consensus line on the NBA odds board.

The Suns have been solid against the spread this season, going 30-26 ATS. Atlanta is just 24-31 ATS on the season.

But there’s almost no point in looking at trends for Phoenix right now, given the chaos they’re facing tonight. However, it might be worth noting that this is already a team that has struggled on the road this year. The Suns are just 11-17 straight up away from home, and are 14-14 ATS in away games. 

The Suns being banged up and waiting for their new acquisitions to arrive is a problem on its own, but the fact that Atlanta is fully healthy only aggravates that problem. In last week's game in Phoenix, the Hawks had five players score 15 or more points in their 32-point win. 

That balance and depth will show even more against a shorthanded Suns squad. While seven points is a lot in an NBA game, I’m happy to lay the points knowing what we do about the team Phoenix is bringing to Atlanta tonight.

Suns vs Hawks Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s total opened at 229.5 points. That number has come down slightly on the trade news, with the consensus Over/Under now sitting at 228.5.

Assuming Phoenix plays something akin to its normal style tonight, this is a battle between two teams that play very different brands of basketball. Atlanta is an offensive-minded squad that struggles to keep teams from scoring in the paint. Phoenix prefers to slow things down, giving up just 111.3 points per game to opponents.

Handicapping the total here isn’t as simple as subtracting some points from the Suns. Phoenix will suffer on both ends of the court due to their absent players, which makes me think that Atlanta might have more success dictating the pace of play tonight. The Suns had been playing some higher-scoring games lately as well, hitting the Over in four of their last six outings.

The Hawks have generally been playing to big totals lately, hitting 230 or more in five of their last seven games. That includes the 132-100 victory over the Suns last week. While I’m more interested in playing the spread tonight, I think the Over is also a good bet here with an undermanned team on the court for Phoenix.

Suns vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Suns are 0-4 ATS against the Hawks in their last four meetings in Atlanta. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Hawks.

Suns vs Hawks game info

Suns vs Hawks key injuries

Pages related to this topic