Suns vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Florida Sunshine Wears Phoenix Down

The two presumptive one-seeds face each other tonight in a possible Finals preview, and if this is a Finals preview, one can only hope the late stages of the playoffs include more health than will be on the court in South Florida tonight. 

Of course, the Suns are without their veteran Point God, but the Heat may also be without their own stalwart veteran. If Jimmy Butler plays, Miami being favored makes sense, but if not, then tonight’s Finals preview suddenly becomes a March exhibition.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Suns at the Heat on March 9, with tip set for 7:30 ET.

Suns vs Heat odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

When this game reached the boards, the Heat were an 8.0-point favorite, and it remained so into Wednesday morning, dropping to -7.0 and then jumping to -4.0. Depending on your book, as of early afternoon, it may have bounced back to -4.5. The total opened early Wednesday at 217.5 and eased upward to 219.5 or 220.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Suns vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: Heat -4.0 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 220 (-110)
• Best bet: Suns first half, Heat game (+450)

Predictions made on 3/9/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Suns vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Wednesday, March 8, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Suns vs Heat betting preview

Key injuries

Suns: Cameron Johnson PF (Out), Chris Paul PG (Out), Dario Saric SF (Out), Frank Kaminsky PF (Out), Devin Booker SG (Probable).
Heat: Jimmy Butler PF (Questionable), Caleb Martin SF (Questionable), Markieff Morris PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, while the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Heat.

Suns vs Heat picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Schedule losses are not as widely acknowledged as they were a few years ago, but this very well may be a schedule loss for Phoenix. On the latter half of a back-to-back, with a cross-country flight home coming tomorrow, the Suns may choose to ease through this game. And even if they don’t, they are facing one of the best home teams in the league.

Miami is 23-7 straight up at home this season and 11-3 since mid-January, including a four-game winning streak. The Heat are 17-13 ATS at home, a record that includes an 0-5 stretch covering nearly the entire month of February. If this game was two weeks ago, doubting Miami at home might shockingly be the intention, but having covered the last three games, including against two Eastern title contenders, has restored that faith.

At which point, this spread falling by half despite the possibility of Phoenix trying to stay intact creates an opportunity to catch the best number on the market. After all, the Suns have an eight-game lead in the West. They can afford a few losses if that helps them find full health.

Prediction: Heat -4.0 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The total edging upward speaks to the questionable status of Jimmy Butler due to sinus congestion. But even without Butler, Miami would still trot out a full NBA rotation, not something that is true as often as we think it is. Kyle Lowry has returned to full-go, meaning someone can hound Devin Booker for the entire game, and without Cameron Johnson, Phoenix is down an offensive weapon.

The Suns are deep, hence being the best team in the league, but those legs will still be tired tonight, amplifying the absence of any scorer, let alone one averaging 17.2 points per game in the last 10 games.

Again, the day’s movement may have overreacted to availability concerns, and if so, grabbing this best number becomes the value play.

Prediction: Under 220.0 (-110)

Best bet

Let’s get creative. The intention here is to fade Phoenix on the second night of a back-to-back, particularly when last night’s 10-point lead at halftime became a three-point stressor of a victory in Orlando. Let’s reiterate that last point: It was against the Magic.

And that was not a fourth quarter made close by garbage time. Orlando tied the game with 3:25 left, the Suns then needing some Landry Shamet free throws and DeAndre Ayton buckets to pull off the win.

If those legs are weary, at all, that will show itself late once again.

How do we best capitalize on that? We look for a double result that fades Phoenix in the second half. As in, the Suns will win the first half but lose the game. Paying out at +450, it maximizes the return of fading a team on the second night of a back-to-back.

Maybe it’s greedy, but isn’t this all about greed?

If that is too specific, there is also mathematical value in alternative lines of -6.5 (+136) and -7.5 (+162). That value should hold down to +125 and +146, respectively, according to the Unabated derivative calculator.

Pick: Double result - Suns win first half, Heat win game (+450)

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