The crown jewel of Sunday’s NBA betting board is a massive non-conference clash between the Phoenix Suns and the Brooklyn Nets.
Brooklyn is expected to have superstar forward Kevin Durant in action versus Phoenix, after missing two games due to a leg injury suffered last weekend. That gives the Nets two-thirds of their “Big 3” (James Harden still out) for this matchup with a Suns team chasing the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Suns vs. Nets on April 25.
Suns vs Nets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBrooklyn opened -2.5 Saturday night at FanDuel, dipped to -1 by this morning, then rose to -2 and is -1.5 as of 1:15 p.m. ET. The Nets are nabbing 59 percent of spread bets and 63 percent of spread money. The total jumped from 229.5 to 233 and is now 232.5, with 61 percent of bets/68 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameSuns at Nets betting preview
Injuries
Suns: Jae Crowder F (Out), Langston Galloway G (Out), Abdel Nader F (Out), Dario Saric F (Out).
Nets: James Harden G (Out), Kevin Durant F (Probable), Chris Chiozza G (Out), Nicolas Claxton F (Out), Alize Johnson F (Out), Tyler Johnson G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nets.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Motivation can be hard to come by when you’re a team as strong as the Brooklyn Nets. But there are a few factors kicking the Nets in the shorts on Sunday. For one, the return of Kevin Durant.
The “Slim Reaper” was on a tear before suffering a thigh contusion versus Miami last weekend and his return to the lineup presents a matchup nightmare for the Suns—as he does most teams. Phoenix's frontcourt can offer up smaller forwards to sacrifice or toss bigger, slower bodies at Durant…or throw double teams at the 6-foot-10 sharpshooter and leave Brooklyn bombers Joe Harris and Landry Shamet open. There’s no right answer.
Another motivational influence is a rare home game with first place in the East in the balance. Brooklyn slid past Philadelphia for a one-game lead atop the conference and plays just its third home date in a 10-game span that stretches from April 13 to April 29.
Brooklyn gives up 111.2 points against inside the Barclays Center, which isn’t great but is much better than the 117-plus it allows on the road. The Nets face some hefty chalk on their homecourt, but the challenge of the Suns has Brooklyn set as a slim favorite for Sunday. The team has thrived as short chalk, going 6-1 SU and ATS as a favorite of -3 or shorter this season, and loves a challenge, going 14-6 ATS in their last 20 matchups with winning teams (above .500).
The cherry on top of the motivational Sunday comes from head coach Steve Nash, who faces his former club for just the second time since starting his coaching career with the Nets.
Brooklyn knocked off the Suns 128-124 as an 8-point underdog in the desert without Durant or Kyrie Irving back on February 16. While this factor may be a bit wishy-washy, Nash is still very much a competitor and would love nothing more than to send a message across the NBA with an emphatic victory over his former franchise.
PREDICTION: Brooklyn -2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Durant’s return has this total on the rise, but Brooklyn could also try to find their “playoff” mentality in this matchup with a dangerous Suns scoring attack. That defensive intensity starts with Irving, who will get assigned to Chris Paul or Devin Booker at times on Sunday, the latter of which is hitting a bit of a skid in April.
Booker, who averages more than 25 points per night, has watched his production dip to 19.2 points per outing over his last five efforts, shooting just 39.8 percent in that span with a 4-for-20 slump from beyond the arc in those contests. He scored only 15 points on 6-of-13 shooting in the loss to Boston Thursday, finishing 0 for 2 from distance and committing five turnovers.
At its core, Phoenix is a sound defensive club, ranked Top 10 in most major stopping stats, including allowing only 108.1 points per outing. The Suns do a great job getting their heels above the 3-point line, limiting foes to just 34.8 percent of their offense from triples and under 35 percent shooting success from downtown.
That will slow down a Brooklyn attack that leans on 3-pointers for almost 36 percent of their total offensive production.
PREDICTION: Under 229.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Irving will have his hands full on defense against the Suns’ talented backcourt and when he does switch gears to offense, don’t expect Phoenix to give him much space on the perimeter. The Suns allow an average of just 43.8 points per game to rival guards (second-lowest in the NBA) and check opposing backcourts to just 4.7 3-pointers a meeting.
Irving was a dismal 0 for 6 from beyond the arc in the win over Boston on Friday and is shooting just 32.4 percent from deep this month, averaging two threes per game over those 11 efforts.
As he showed in the win over the Celtics, Kyrie can contribute in a number of different ways and on both ends of the court. With his focus on frustrating Paul and Booker, expect him to stay under his 3-point total Sunday afternoon.
PREDICTION: Kyrie Irving Under 2.5 3-pointers (-162)
Suns vs Nets betting card
- Brooklyn -2 (-110)
- Under 229.5 (-110)
- Kyrie Irving Under 2.5 3-pointers (-162)
Picks made on 4/25/2021 at 8:59 a.m. ET
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