Suns vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Nuggets Golden Against Big Spread

Wednesday night, we get what should've been an exciting clash between West contenders as the Denver Nuggets host the Phoenix Suns.

Instead, it'll be blowout fodder with a double-digit spread between two teams headed in entirely different directions. 

While Phoenix deals with its ongoing identity crisis, it'll be in for a rough night against surging Denver. Get the Suns vs. Nuggets breakdown with our NBA picks and predictions for January 11.

Suns vs Nuggets best odds

Suns vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Man, have things ever gone downhill in Phoenix. The Suns were leading the West at one point this season, but have lost 14 of their last 19 games to come crashing down to the .500 mark. 

Phoenix is just 3-10 on the season without Devin Booker, and will be without a heck of a lot more than just him this evening. Chris Paul, washed as he's looked for most of this year, will sit, as will backups Cam Payne and Landry Shamet — effectively, the Suns' entire backcourt rotation. 

What's worse, Deandre Ayton — who would not only be the Suns' second-best healthy player, but a necessary cog to hopefully make Nikola Jokic work on the defensive end — is listed as questionable after sitting last night.

Speaking of last night, yes, the Suns somehow beat the Warriors in Steph Curry's return, an anomalous game where Phoenix shot much better from 3-point range (45.6%) than Golden State did overall (38.5%). Don't let that fool you into thinking this team is somehow on that level. 

Outside of Mikal Bridges (and Ayton if he plays), the Suns will be trotting out their C-team. Already without Cam Johnson and whatever return they'll get from Jae Crowder in the frontcourt, we'll be seeing heavy doses of Dario Saric and Ish Wainwright.

And while guys like Damion Lee have been impressive in limited roles against second units, they're not ready to romp with the Nuggets, who have the two-time reigning MVP in "God Mode," a sparkling clean injury report for their standards (Jeff Green is the only rotation player who should sit), and are both 8-2 against the spread and straight up in their past 10 games. 

Really, this handicap could begin and end with Jokic, who's been on the warpath for weeks, and is the type of galvanizing variable that will very consistently raise the rest of his team's floor well beyond what this Suns roster can compete with. Add in an ostensibly healthy Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, plus a depth edge over Phoenix at literally every position, and it's very tough to conjure up even a single edge on paper for the underdogs.

What Phoenix is fielding tonight is a step above a G-League team. Jokic should dissect its patchwork role players, who will be in way over their heads on defense, and not have a hope in hell of scoring with this team. 

The Nuggets are in an unconscious groove right now, with a 120.8 offensive rating over their past 10 games, which would lead the league by a considerable margin. And it appears to be more the product of their team finally being healthy and clicking together, rather than unsustainable shooting splits like the Suns benefitted from against the Warriors.

Phoenix will be thoroughly outclassed, and depleted to the extent that the threat of a backdoor cover against this huge spread is lessened, especially dealing with the Denver altitude on the second leg of a back-to-back. 

In the absence of other markets, if you're keen on betting this game, the favorites have to be it.

My best bet: Nuggets -12 (-110 at FanDuel)

Suns vs Nuggets spread analysis

With markets for this game very slow to trickle out on Wednesday morning, anyone looking to bet Suns-Nuggets was funneled towards the spread as a result.

While the big number (12 as of 8 a.m. ET and rising at most books) may be enough to scare some punters off, there's simply no way to have faith in the Suns unless you're buying into their performance last night and don't understand the effects of homecourt and fatigue.

So the spread is double-digits. Each of the Nuggets' past four wins have come by 12+, against the Lakers, Cavs, Clippers, and Celtics, all teams that are, to varying extents, miles better than whatever the Suns are right now. Denver's offense has just been that tough for teams to keep up with, averaging an absurd 121 points over its past 10 games.

For context, prior to last night's fluke victory, the Suns had averaged an anemic 99.1 PPG since Booker got hurt, scoring more than 104 just once, with two efforts in the 80s. Most of those games came with Paul and Ayton in the lineup, meaning Phoenix's realistic baseline for scoring tonight should be even lower. 

It's more than likely the Nuggets just overpower the Suns with an offensive output the dogs don't have the teeth to chew.

Suns vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

The total for this game started popping up mid-writing, with FanDuel opening at 227 and rapid movement in either direction depending on where you look.

There could be very erratic movement here given the Suns' roster situation, but even if we're trying to take advantage of an uncertain market, this is a total I'm not fussy about. 

Betting an Under against Denver's offense right now seems dumb at best, while the Suns are futile enough scoring-wise that relying on them to do their part for an Over is equally dubious. 

Factoring in the potential blowout and Denver taking its foot off the gas only adds another layer to an onion I'd avoid trying to chop up. Save the tears. 

Suns vs Nuggets betting trend to know

Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.

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