Suns vs Pelicans Game 3 Picks and Predictions: Flying High Into New Orleans

The New Orleans Pelicans have stolen a game on the road and now have two games at home to put themselves in a position to become the fifth eight seed in NBA history to pull off the first round. The Phoenix Suns will look to navigate the rest of this series without Devin Booker, who is out with a hamstring strain. Can the reigning Western Conference champions hold off the feisty Pelicans or will New Orleans take the series lead at home on Friday?

Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Suns vs. Pelicans Game 3 matchup on Friday, April 23rd.

Suns vs Pelicans odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Phoenix opened as 1-point favorites and has since moved to -2. The total opened at 219.5 and has since moved all the way down to 216.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Suns vs Pelicans predictions

• Prediction: Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 215.5 (-115)
• Best bet: Pelicans 1H ML (+114)

Predictions made on 4/22/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Suns vs Pelicans game info

• Location: Smoothie King Center
• Date: Friday, April 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Suns vs Pelicans series odds

Suns: -310
Pelicans: +250

Suns vs Pelicans betting preview

Key injuries

Suns: Devin Booker G (Out).
Pelicans: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Games officiated by Zach Zarba with a total below 220 have gone 15-9 to the Over. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Pelicans.

Suns vs Pelicans picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Some will explain it away by pointing toward Chris Paul’s 0-14 record when Scott Foster officiates his games and others will point toward Devin Booker's untimely hamstring injury, but the fact of the matter is that the Pelicans won Game 2 and have tied the series heading into two games at home.

Brandon Ingram chipping in 37 points on 13-21 shooting (3-3 3PT) with 11 boards and 9 assists to boot certainly helped, and if Ingram can continue playing anywhere near this well all over the court, then New Orleans more than stands a chance. Willie Green also drew up aggressive action to free up CJ McCollum, who chipped in a much more efficient 23 points on 7-18 (6-10 3PT) shooting after scoring 25 points in Game 1 on 9-25 shooting.

Speaking of Willie Green, he also masterfully adjusted the rotation to help play to New Orleans’ strengths. Green swapped out Jonas Valanciunas for the smaller pair up of Jaxson Hayes (11 minutes in Game 1 to 20 in Game 2) and Larry Nance, which helped open the floor and create challenges for Phoenix defensively. Nance has now scored 13+ in the three straight games, dating back to the play-in game against the Clippers, during which the lightbulb seemed to flash on for Green.

Without Booker, the Suns have predictably been less potent on offense. In their 19 regular season games without him in the last two seasons, the Suns have averaged 109.6 points per game. That is noticeably below the 115.8 they averaged with him, as well as the 115.2 points the Pelicans have averaged since acquiring McCollum at the trade deadline.

If we throw out the regular season finale, in which Green rested all of his starters, the Pelicans are now 4-1 at home in their last five. While the Suns finished with the best road record in the league at 32-9, they sputtered down the stretch and have gone 1-3 in their last four.

Prediction: Pelicans +2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Game 1's total closed at 224 and Game 2's closed at 221.5, and Game 3's opened at 219.5 and has since moved as low as 215.5 at some books. This movement from game to game or even from opener to current prices is a good buyback opportunity. 

In fact, tonight's mark of 215.5 is uncharted territory for the new-look Pelicans, as it's the lowest total New Orleans has seen since acquiring CJ McCollum. The Suns have not seen a total this low since January 20th.

While Booker's scoring is obviously hard to replicate, the teams played at a rapid pace after he exited the game at the 4:34 mark in the third quarter, scoring at a pace that would have netted 243.9 points over the course of a full game. It's obviously a small sample, but if it's any indication of how the rest of the series may play out, it's obviously favorable to an Over for tonight.

To make each team's journey towards the Over easier, Zach Zarba will serve as tonight's crew chief, who has a pretty convincing record towards the Over this season. In games officiated by Zarba with a total below 220, the Over has gone 15-9 (62.5%).

Prediction: Over 215.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Best bet

Friday's Game 3 matchup between the Suns and Pelicans provides a lot of intrigue, as there are a lot of moving parts and an equal amount of unknowns. Intuition says Phoenix has the talent and coaching to pull the series out, but it won't come easily.

If the Suns take any appreciable amount of time to solve how they will replace Booker's production, they may have too much on their plate at once if Willie Green also continues to throw different looks with his rotations.

Granted, Monty Williams and Chris Paul have minds as good as anyone else in the NBA to tackle that challenge, but it may be something that bears fruit as the game and series goes on as opposed to immediately in the opening half of Game 3.

Pick: Pelicans first-half moneyline (+114 at UniBet)

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