The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot tonight. The Raptors will be playing the second half of a back-to-back when they host Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns.
The Raps are coming off a tough loss at the hands of the Brooklyn Nets last night while KD and the Suns come into this one red-hot. Does Toronto have a chance to slow down Phoenix, or will the Suns shine bright and cover the NBA odds spread in the process?
I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks for Suns vs. Raptors on Wednesday, November 29.
Suns vs Raptors odds
Suns vs Raptors predictions
The Toronto Raptors' inconsistent play continued in last night’s loss to the Nets. They struggled shooting everywhere, including the charity stripe, and things won’t get any easier against a Phoenix Suns team that is well-rested and riding a seven-game winning streak (5-2 against the spread).
Toronto is now shooting 40.5% from the field, 30.5% from 3-point range, and a befuddling 66% from the free-throw line. Part of that is due to the little slump Scottie Barnes has hit. The third-year man is averaging just 15.7 points per game on 40.6% shooting over his last seven games. That’s not going to get the job done against a Suns team trending in the right direction.
Now, the Raptors enter this game ranking 24th in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage. While the Suns aren’t an elite defensive team, they aren’t terrible either, ranking 18th in defensive rating and eighth in opponent eFG %.
But that’s not the problem here. It’s whether the Raptors have any hope of containing Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. KD is doing his thing, scoring 31.4 points per game while shooting 53.3% from the floor while Book looks like he has taken his game to an “MVP-conversation” level.
Booker is putting up 29.4 points per game, shooting a ridiculous 43.5% from 3-point range while adding 8.9 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game. Overall, the Suns rank sixth in offensive rating and lead the NBA in that category during this seven-game winning streak.
Yes, the Raptors defense is solid, but it looks like they have lost a bit of step recently and now rank 13th in defensive rating, 18th in opponent eFG%, and 19th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
All this has me thinking the Suns could jump out to an early lead. The Raptors have been notoriously slow starters this season, ranking 21st in first-half scoring margin at -2.0. The Suns, on the other hand, rank third in first-half scoring margin at +6.9, which includes a solid +5.2 on the road.
Even though the Raptors have been a better team at home, this looks like a bad matchup for them and I’m backing the Suns on the first-half spread in this one.
My best bet: Suns -0.5 first-half spread (-130 at Pointsbet)
Suns vs Raptors same-game parlay
Suns -0.5 first-half spread
Eric Gordon Over 13.5 points
Jusuf Nurkic Over 8.5 rebounds
One of the players who I think will help Phoenix jump out to that early lead isn’t who you think.
With Barnes and OG Anunoby likely having their hands full with Durant and Booker, that could open things up for Eric Gordon. The Suns shooting guard has stepped into the starting lineup for the injured Bradley Beal. Gordon is averaging 17.3 points per game as a starter and has put up at least 14 points in nine of his 12 starts this season.
Let’s close this SGP out with a rebounding prop. Both teams would classify as average rebounding teams but Jusuf Nurkic could get more opportunities to clean the glass here. For starters, the Raps miss a bunch of shots. Second, they also have a traditional center in Jakon Poeltl, which could mean more minutes for Nurkic. Make the final leg of this SGP Nurkic Over 8.5 rebounds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Suns vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis
The Raptors opened this matchup as 2-point home underdogs and have been faded to +3 as of Wednesday afternoon.
It feels like the oddsmakers are giving Toronto a little too much respect here. Yes, the Raps are better at home, where they are 5-4 SU/ATS, but there is a bigger edge between these two teams than three points. This is especially the case when you consider it's Toronto’s second game in as many nights while the red-hot Suns come into this one well-rested.
This might have a little bit of "Durant is questionable and may not play" baked into it, but even with KD out, this Suns team would be a handful for the Raptors, considering how hard getting buckets has been for them lately. I’d lean toward Phoenix on the full-game spread as well and maybe a halftime/full-time bet is worth a look.
When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 223 and has been bet up to 226 as of writing. And it makes sense. The Suns have been on fire. They are scoring 124.7 points per game while leading the NBA in field goal percentage over this seven-game winning streak.
Toronto should have some success playing at home against a mid-range Suns defense and I would lean toward the Over in this matchup.
Suns vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Suns have hit the first-half moneyline in 45 of their last 69 games for +24.65 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Raptors.
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Suns vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 29, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Arizona's Family Sports, TSN |
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