The Phoenix Suns are in tailspin mode due to a number of key injuries cropping up, while the Minnesota Timberwolves are headed in the right direction with a Friday win and a chance to play at home.
With these two teams moving in opposite directions, my Suns vs. Timberwolves predictions expect the Wolves to cover at home tonight.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should lay the points with the Timberwolves on November 17.
Suns vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Timberwolves -7 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Minnesota Timberwolves are just 5-8 ATS this season, but the Wolves are one game better in that department than the 4-9 Phoenix Suns. The Suns have failed to cover in two straight, but the Wolves covered on Friday night with an OT victory over the Kings.
Phoenix has been without both Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant in each of their last two games, and the team’s offense has struggled mightily. The Suns averaged just 93.5 points in that pair of contests and lost by 39 combined points. Minnesota got back on track with Friday’s win following three straight losses on the road. These teams are on two different trajectories, and momentum favors the home team.
Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 110.6 points per game this season — seventh-fewest in the Association. The Wolves have been even better at home, allowing just 104.5 points per game — third-fewest. Minnesota is healthy and rested after three straight road games, and I expect them to come out hot in this one. The Suns have lost two straight and three of four, and I can’t expect them to win this tough matchup on the road.
Suns vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Timberwolves -7
Devin Booker Under 26.5 points
Ryan Dunn Over 13.5 pts+reb+ast
Much like his team over the last two games, Devin Booker’s offense has struggled this season. He’s had a tough time finding his shot, as he’s averaging just 22.5 points on 42.5% shooting to start the 2024-25 campaign. He’s been even less efficient as of late, averaging 18.9 points across his last seven and just 15 points over the last two without Beal and Durant. He’s shot sub-40% in each of those spans. This seems like a big spot for Booker to take charge as a scorer, but we can’t count on him to do so, especially against a Wolves defense that ranks seventh in fewest points per game allowed on the season and third in points per game allowed at home.
Ryan Dunn has started each of Phoenix’s last four games and averaged 12.4 PRAs in that span. He’s hit the Over in two straight heading into Sunday afternoon’s tilt with the Wolves. On the season as a whole, Dunn has started six games and averaged 14 PRAs. He’s hit the Over in four of six while logging a healthy 24.8 minutes per game. With both Beal and Durant out again, Dunn is expected to run with the first unit, which should yield plenty of opportunities to score and rebound, particularly due to Booker’s recent struggles. This line is set comfortably, and I’ll take the Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Suns vs Timberwolves odds
Suns vs Timberwolves live odds
Suns vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +7 (-110) | Minnesota -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +230 | Minnesota -280
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 (-110) | Under 218.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Suns vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Phoenix is 9-4 straight up on the season, but the team is just 4-9 ATS.
- Minnesota sports a 7-6 straight-up record, but the Wolves have covered in just 5 of 13 games.
- The Suns’ offense has sputtered over their last two games due to key injuries, but Phoenix is 8-5 to the Over on the season.
- The Timberwolves defense is one of the stingiest in the Association, but Minnesota has hit the Over in 8 of 13 games.
Suns vs Timberwolves trend
The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 63 of their last 99 games (+22.63 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Suns vs Timberwolves
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KTVK, FDSNNO |
Suns vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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