The Golden State Warriors will be without Steph Curry when they host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, but they’ll still be desperate to take down the NBA's best team when these Western Conference powers clash.
The Suns have locked in the West's No. 1 seed but haven't taken the foot off the gas with the playoffs just around the corner, entering tonight on an eight-game win streak.
Will Phoenix stay hot with a win over Golden State? Read our NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Warriors to find out.
Suns vs Warriors odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Suns were laying 4 when this game first became available, but they’re now favored by 4.5 or 5 points at most sportsbooks. As for the total, the number has climbed from 222 to 222.5 or 223 in most spots.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Suns vs Warriors predictions
Predictions made on 3/30/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Suns vs Warriors game info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Wednesday, March 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Suns vs Warriors betting preview
Key injuries
Suns: JaVale McGee C (Questionable), Cameron Johnson F (Questionable), Frank Kaminsky C (Out), Dario Saric F (Out).
Warriors: Steph Curry G (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Warriors.
Suns vs Warriors picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Suns don’t deal with losses very well, which is part of the reason this team is 13-1 against the spread when avenging a loss to an opponent this season. Phoenix has won those games by an average of 14.0 points per game, and the team is undoubtedly going to be looking to make a statement against a Golden State team, especially without Steph Curry.
The Suns pay a lot of attention to what people say about them, and they’re not going to want to hear that they couldn’t beat the Warriors without their best player.
With Curry out, Golden State is obviously missing the greatest shooter in the history of the game, which means that the court spacing isn’t quite right for this Warriors offense. Jordan Poole is a very talented offensive player, and he is very capable of putting up big numbers, but this team doesn’t operate at as high of a level without Curry.
Against a Suns team that is second in the NBA in defensive rating this year, that should be painfully obvious in the biggest possessions of the game. Phoenix could also opt to put Mikal Bridges, one of the favorites for Defensive Player of the Year, on Klay Thompson in this game, which would really make it hard for the Warriors to get hot.
On the other end of the floor, the Warriors will likely try to put Draymond Green at center for a couple of spurts, but that shouldn’t bother Deandre Ayton. He has good enough footspeed to defend Green, and he has the ability to shoot over him with his lethal jump hook in the paint. If the Warriors can’t take Ayton out of the game, that is going to be trouble.
We all know what to expect from Devin Booker and Chris Paul, who have looked great with one another since Paul came back from an injury.
Booker will be eager to light up this Warriors team. In the two prior games against Golden State, he's had to leave one with injury and scored just 13 in the other. He's been on fire as of late, reaching 27 points in each of his last eight games, so look for him to get hot and lead this Suns team to another win and cover on the road.
Prediction: Suns -4 (-106 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Suns are coming off an Under in their win over the Philadelphia 76ers, but it’s hard not to take the Over with this team right now. The Over was 7-1 in the team’s eight prior games before facing the Sixers, and Phoenix had scored at least 125 points in seven games in a row before scoring only 114 against Philadelphia.
With this point total being so low, it’d be nearly impossible for the Over to hit if the Suns were to hit that mark again. These teams also happened to combine for 223 points when they met on December 25, and that was a game in which Phoenix played far from its best.
The Over is also 16-5 in the last 21 games that Phoenix has played when coming off a straight-up win. On top of that, the Over is 5-1 in the Suns’ last six road games against teams with winning home records. And despite his reputation as a defender, the Warriors aren't as good defensively with Curry out of the lineup. Back the Over.
Prediction: Over 222.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Ayton might not be the best passer you’ll find at the center position, but sometimes recording assists is just a matter of having enough time with the ball in your hands. Phoenix has certainly been giving the big man his fair share of opportunities on the offensive end, and the 23-year-old has now recorded multiple assists in three of his last four games.
Against Golden State, it wouldn’t be surprising if Phoenix kept Ayton out there to compete against the Warriors’ small-ball lineups. The Suns can probably get away with putting Ayton on Green in spurts, as the Warriors forward isn’t a great 3-point shooter and doesn’t exactly possess the speed to blow by big men that move well.
If he’s holding his own defensively, Phoenix would then look to feed him on the offensive end.
Ayton has size over Green on the inside — the same goes for Kevon Looney, in Golden State’s more traditional looks — so the Suns will want him to use that to get to his hook shot. But if it’s not there, the big men will look to find his teammates.
These odds are just hard to pass up when considering Ayton have two assists the first time these teams met this year.
Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 1.5 assists (+155)
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