Friday night was arguably the greatest regular season performance in New York Knicks history. Yet Jalen Brunson’s 61-point heroics came with a bitter aftertaste, as rising phenom Victor Wembanyama ultimately sealed the win and knocked New York down the jumbled East standings.
The competition ramps up a notch on Sunday, March 31, as they square off against the youngest contender in the Association, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder are possibly going to be without one of the NBA odds leaders for MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but as the Phoenix Suns found out on Friday, that doesn't mean they can be taken lightly.
My NBA picks for the Knicks vs. Thunder believe Chet Holmgren will be the X-factor that decides today’s game.
Thunder vs Knicks predictions
My best bet: Thunder moneyline (+118 at Pinnacle)
The Oklahoma City Thunder and New York Knicks are both helmed by dynamic guards who would rather break the defense down in the paint than bomb threes, but that’s where the similarities end.
At full strength, this would be one of the most interesting matchups in the entire NBA because the Thunder are in many ways the antithesis of the Knicks.
The Thunder are a team that plays five out with a stretch big nearly all the time, setting up one of the most efficient first shot offenses in the entire NBA. They are predicated on pushing the pace and looking for quality shots early in the clock. If they have a weakness, it’s their lack of size and thus vulnerability on the glass.
The Knicks are the lowest-paced team in the NBA and play two to three non-shooters basically at all times. They make up for the lack of spacing through Jalen Brunson’s wizardry and a penchant for dominating the possession battle by grabbing every rebound in sight.
Heading into this matchup last night, it looked like both teams would be without key contributors. O.G. Anunoby and Julius Randle both remain out for New York, and both its centers are question marks after getting banged up the previous game.
The Thunder were facing the prospects of a game without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has missed two games recovering from a quad contusion.
But while Shai was officially listed as doubtful as of last night, his status was upgraded to questionable this morning. OKC is notoriously tight-lipped about injuries, so I don’t think it would bother with making such a designation change unless it thought there was a good chance that Shai would play.
While SGA’s possible return has moved the lines, I think it's another Thunder player who is the most critical swing piece on Sunday: Chet Holmgren. As was the case when the Knicks lost to the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night and has been true the entirety of the Tom Thibodeau era, the Knicks are vulnerable to stretch fives.
New York's bigs are not overly mobile on the perimeter and they often get caught in a bad spot, having to close out from the deep drop that Thibs favors on defense.
If the opposing center is a good shooter, they'll get a lot of clean looks. Just as troublesome for the Knicks is a five like Chet who can pump and go, blowing past the lynchpin of their defense and forcing help. Defending that four-on-three with New York's center out of the action has been its Achilles heel.
This problem is further magnified when Isaiah Hartenstein is out of the game, and as he’s limited to about 25 minutes of action these days not accounting for his newly sprained hand. Chet meanwhile isn’t the only stretch big the Thunder play, they play like this pretty much all 48 minutes. It’s a problem that requires schematic adjustments that Thibs doesn’t seem willing to make.
Even before Shai was listed as questionable, I thought the Thunder should be the favorites here. While the margin’s not as profitable as it once was, I’ll still happily take the moneyline at plus money value.
Thunder vs Knicks same-game parlay
Thunder moneyline
Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points
Under 216.5
Holmgren might not be the level of prospect that Wembanyama is, but he presents all the same issues for the Knicks' defense that Wemby does.
Victor scored 40 points on points on just 22 shots against New York on Friday by bombing threes and attacking hard closeouts just as I suspect Chet will. He also got to the line 12 times, which is another result of the Knicks getting caught badly out of position over and over.
In the Thunder’s previous game against N.Y. this season, Holmgren scored 22 points on 69.8% true shooting despite hitting just 25% of his threes.
While I think OKC will do a good job poking at this one area, I still suspect this will be a low scoring game overall. The Knicks aren’t giants like some of the Thunder’s main foils, but they're a bruising, physical team that drags other teams into the mud with them.
The Under is 26-11 in Knicks home games, which is the highest rate in the Association.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Thunder vs Knicks odds and trends
Thunder vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -3.5 | New York +3.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City +138 | New York -153
- Over/Under: Over 214 | Under 214
Thunder vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Most oddsmakers opened with this line at Knicks -3.5, and some action on the home team saw that rise to as high as -4.5.
- Since the change in status for SGA however, the spread is now available between -2 and -1.5 favoring New York.
- OKC is 7-4-1 against the spread as road underdogs.
- The total for Sunday opened as low as 214 and it’s now available as high as 217 at some sportsbooks.
Thunder vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Under is 26-11 in Knicks home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Knicks.
Thunder vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, March 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
Bally Oklahoma, MSG |
Not intended for use in MA.
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