Lebron James is just 35 points away from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's record of 38,387, and he'll get a chance to sit atop the all-time scoring throne on Tuesday. The game itself seems minuscule in comparison, but the Los Angeles Lakers (25-29) desperately need to win while sitting 13th in the Western Conference and 1.5 games back of the final play-in spot.
They'll host the Oklahoma City Thunder (25-28), who are a half-game ahead of the Lakers and sorely need to stop the bleeding after dropping three of their last four and five of the team's previous eight. Their last outing wasn't pretty either, with the Golden State Warriors earning a blowout 141-114 win on Tuesday.
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. answer back and spoil the fun for James and the Lakers? Or will fans worldwide witness history?
Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Thunder vs. Lakers matchup.
Thunder vs Lakers best odds
Thunder vs Lakers picks and predictions
On April 5, 1984, Abdul-Jabbar scored point No. 31,420, surpassing Wilt Chamberlain to become the NBA's all-time leading scorer. Now James could become the new leader 14,187 days later.
No matter how you feel about the 38-year-old and 20-year vet and what he has and has not accomplished, his scoring ability over that absurdly long career is undeniable. Outside of his rookie year as a fresh-faced 19-year-old when he still averaged 20.9 points per game, Lebron has never averaged under 25 points per outing.
In 2022-23 he's averaging 30.0 points per game, tied for his second-highest career mark. His career-high? The 30.3 points he averaged just last year. And he remains efficient, with his 59.0% effective field-goal percentage in 2021-22 tied for James' fourth-highest career mark.
Understandably, this campaign has been a bit different. Between a less-equipped roster that does him no favors spacing-wise and the additional year of wear on the tires, James' efficiency has taken a small but noticeable dip (55.2%). On top of that, he's playing through a bout of ankle soreness that's seemed to limit his shooting even further.
He's shot just 32-of-66 from the field over the last three games (48.5%). While that's an obviously small sample, James hasn't shot below that clip for a full season since 2007. To further illustrate the potential impact of the ankle soreness, he's also shot just 5-of-20 (25.0 %) from three during that time.
Making the record-breaking task slightly tougher is the defense opposite of him on Tuesday. The Thunder have sneakily been a decent defensive team in 2022-23 while ranking 12th in defensive rating. They're playing even better lately and sit inside the top 10 over the past month.
There are just simply too many indicators that Tuesday is likely not the night James breaks the scoring record. That includes the Thunder's defense, the nagging ankle soreness that's seemingly slowing James, and the inflated points total that books are posting in anticipation of the Over getting a lot of action (32.5).
But there's another factor at play, too. Due to his ability and longevity and the records he's naturally broken as a result, it's easy to forget that James isn't one to chase stats. During the final stretch of last season, Lebron was in a position to become the oldest scoring title winner ever. But with his team out of playoff contention, James willingly sat out six of the last eight contests. He fell two games short of the playing time requirement, and he ended 0.3 points back of the title.
My best bet: LeBron James Under 32.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Looking to do some NBA betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $3,000! Sign Up Now
B) Get one no-sweat NBA same-game parlay every day at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Thunder vs Lakers spread analysis
The spread opened with the Lakers favored by 6.5 points, and the number has stayed at that mark across the market.
Oklahoma City is the league's best team at covering the spread, going 32-20-1 for a 61% cover rate. The Thunder have also posted the highest average cover margin at +4.0, with the next highest team at just +2.6.
They're even better as away underdogs after going 15-6-1 during that split (71.4%). However, their form lately hasn't been great, with the team failing to cover in five of its last eight matchups. The Thunder had covered in seven straight prior to that run.
The Lakers have gone 25-28-1 against the spread in 2022-23, tied for the league's ninth-worst cover rate at 47.2%. They're 5-6 ATS as home favorites.
Los Angeles last played on Saturday while the Thunder were on the court Monday, and that may play into the Lakers' favor. They're 9-6 ATS with a rest advantage, while the Thunder are an even 3-3 against the spread on back-to-backs
The Lakers have also failed to cover in three of their last four, but they had covered in six of the previous eight.
Thunder vs Lakers Over/Under analysis
The total for Tuesday's game opened at 237 and has since moved to 239.5 at most shops.
The Thunder have gone 31-22 to the Over in 2022-23, good for the fifth-highest Over rate on the season at 58.5%. However, they've played to an even 13-13 totals record on the road. Also, while in a back-to-back set they've split their totals at 3-3.
Oklahoma City has gone 4-2 to the Over in its last six games. But the team had played to four straight Unders prior to that, and then seven straight Overs before that run. The Thunder have gone 5-3 to the Under on totals at or above 235.
Los Angeles has gone 29-25 to the Over in 2022-23, good for the 10th-highest Overs rate. However, the Lakers have gone 13-12 to the Under at home, and 6-5 as home favorites.
They've also been leaning toward the Under when given a rest advantage recently, going 10-5 and tying for the second-best Under rate during that run. The Under has hit a lot during Lakers games overall lately too, including nine of their last 14 matchups. The Lakers have gone 12-8 to the Under on totals at or above 235.
Thunder vs Lakers betting trend to know
Despite a losing record against the spread in 2022-23 (25-28-1), the Lakers are 9-6 when playing with a rest advantage. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Lakers.
Thunder vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
