The Phoenix Suns are still eagerly awaiting for Kevin Durant to make his debut for his new team and it looks like his return is close. For now, Durant will be on the sidelines as his new team hosts the team that drafted him tonight.
The Suns have gotten by with a short bench since the trade deadline but will “getting by” be enough against a scrappy Oklahoma City Thunder team that has been one of the best bets in the NBA this season?
I break it all down and bring you my best bet in our free NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Suns on February 24.
Thunder vs Suns best odds
Thunder vs Suns picks and predictions
Thanks to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading a high-octane offense and a strong effort on defense, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the more fun teams to watch this season.
But for all the things the Thunder do well, they still have some flaws and the biggest remains on the glass.
The Thunder rank 26th in the NBA when it comes to rebounding rate, thanks to their mostly small-ball-centric lineups. There are also a ton of rebounds to be had in Thunder games, and that's because no team in the NBA takes more shots per game than OKC.
Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton might look like the obvious candidate when it comes to a rebounding prop in this matchup, but oddsmakers have taken notice of this mismatch and elevated his rebounding total.
So, instead of looking at the tallest Sun on the floor, I’m turning my attention to point guard Chris Paul.
Paul averages 4.2 rebounds per game this season, and that number has actually gone up ever so slightly to 4.4 over his last 13 games since his return from a hip injury.
CP3's rebounding total for this one is set at a reasonable 4.5, and it's a number he’s eclipsed seven times in that 13-game stretch. Add in the plus money odds, and I love this bet tonight.
My best bet: Chris Paul Over 4.5 rebounds (+123)
Looking to do some NBA betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) Get one no-sweat NBA same-game parlay every day at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Thunder vs Suns spread analysis
Unfortunately, we probably won’t see the best version of the Thunder tonight, as “load management” rears its ugly head.
Gilgeous-Alexander is listed as questionable for this matchup with hip and ankle injuries. But more than likely, it’s just a rest day after OKC battled in overtime last night against the Jazz. The line pretty much tells you that as well.
I’m not sure the Thunder are 8-point underdogs against the Suns if SGA is on the court. Part of the reason for that is because OKC is underrated, sitting 10th in the NBA in net rating, plus they’ve been the best bet in the NBA at 35-21-2 against the spread.
The other reason is that the Suns have been just OK while they wait for KD’s debut. They are 2-2 ATS and straight up since the trade deadline, with wins over Indiana and Sacramento but losses to the Clippers and Hawks.
Clearly, the Suns' depth was hurt when they lost Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson in the trade for Kevin Durant. Mix in injuries to Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet and all of a sudden, the Suns have a short bench.
If SGA ends up not playing, the Suns should win, but I’m not 100% confident they will cover. I’m staying away from the spread here.
Thunder vs Suns Over/Under analysis
The other telling aspect of SGA’s potential absence is in the total. Since hitting the board at 232.5, the number has already dropped 4.5 points to sit at 228 as of Friday afternoon. On top of that, both of these teams rank in the Top 10 when it comes to defensive rating.
The Suns are a pretty efficient offensive team, but they also play at a slow pace and score just 112.7 points per game (22nd in the NBA). Meanwhile, the OKC offense just doesn’t have the same punch if Gilgeous-Alexander is sidelined.
My guess is the Suns will try to slow down this game and make the Thunder play at their pace. No official play for me here, but I would lean toward the Under.
Thunder vs Suns betting trend to know
The Under is 7-3 in Oklahoma City's last 10 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and is 5-2 in the Phoenix's last seven overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Suns.
Thunder vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, February 24, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
