The Minnesota Timberwolves didn’t have quite the season opener they were hoping for on Tuesday, falling to the Los Angeles Lakers on the road, but they’ll be hopeful for a different outcome on Thursday against a much more beatable Sacramento Kings team.
The Kings are coming off a down year and will look to veteran DeMar DeRozan to add some much-needed offense to a team which was surprisingly flat in that area in 2023-24.
Without further ado, here are my Timberwolves vs. Kings predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, October 24.
Timberwolves vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Timberwolves moneyline (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Sacramento Kings finished the 2023-24 season ranked just 13th in offensive efficiency, something that was of particular concern given they failed to maintain the defensive gains that helped them rise up the ranks in the Western Conference just a couple of seasons ago.
Now a team which leans heavily on the 3-point shot will draw the fifth-best 3-point defense in the league from a season ago, and one which allowed just 16.7% shooting from deep against the Lakers.
It’s always hard to read too heavily into the preseason, but Sacramento stood as the fourth-worst offense during its five games and lost every one of them.
I’m a little concerned for Sacramento in this spot, not only because it was flat in the preseason and enters into an arduous matchup, but because the Minnesota Timberwolves will enter with the advantage of shaking off the rust with one game already under their belt.
Sacramento should be forced to play from the perimeter here given the incredible nature of this Minnesota interior defense, which should take away some of the scoring ability that it often leans on from Domantas Sabonis. That’s a bit scary when you consider this team shot a league-worst 25.4% from 3-point range in the preseason and will likely look rusty in its first game of the year.
I simply don’t see it here for the Kings, who lacked any quality on defense a season ago and have now installed DeMar DeRozan into a crucial role on the wing. He’s been an average to below-average defender over the last few seasons and will have his hands full trying to guard Anthony Edwards.
I expect the better team to shine here, even if it’s on the road, and for the Timberwolves to build off a strong second half from Tuesday to get the win.
Timberwolves vs Kings same-game parlay (SGP)
Timberwolves moneyline
DeMar DeRozan 20+ points
Anthony Edwards 3+ made threes
I did express some doubt in DeRozan’s defensive ability above, but I do like him to score the ball on Thursday.
The Timberwolves, like any great defense, forced their opponents into a bevy of mid-range shots a season ago, allowing attempts in that zone at the third-highest clip in the game a season ago. While they defended the shot well, it’s pretty clear that this is where Sacramento is going to be given space to shoot, and there have been few who have favored and converted the mid-range shot like DeRozan.
With Sabonis forced into more of a play-making role, and the Kings’ outside shooters likely to struggle, DeRozan should carry the freight here.
I also love this very generous line on Edwards to make a few triples, after he shot a ton of 3-pointers in the preseason and continued on with that trend with 13 attempts from outside against the Lakers.
He shot 40% from deep last postseason, and with Karl-Anthony Towns out of town and Julius Randle an average outside threat at best, it seems the first crack at taking over his volume will go to Edwards. The Kings ranked just 29th in 3-point defense a season ago according to Cleaning the Glass and should present Edwards with yet another great matchup after he cashed in on five 3s on Tuesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Timberwolves vs Kings odds
Timberwolves vs Kings live odds
Get the latest Timberwolves vs Kings NBA odds.
Timberwolves vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +1.5 | Sacramento -1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +100 | Sacramento -120
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
Timberwolves vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- There’s been a ton of recent movement in this line, with Sacramento bouncing back and forth between a favorite and underdog. After reaching as high as +1.5, the Kings have settled as 1-point underdogs.
- DraftKings is reporting that 66% of the bets and 62% of the handle is on Minnesota.
- The total has taken a huge dive in the past 24 hours, moving from the opening line of 227 all the way down as low as 220.5 before recovering a bit to 222 on Thursday afternoon.
- While 81% of the tickets have come in on the Over, it’s accounted for just 60% of the handle.
Timberwolves vs Kings trend
The Kings have hit the Under in 18 of their last 22 games (+13.60 Units / 56% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Kings.
Timberwolves vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-24-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNN, NBCSCA |
Timberwolves vs Kings latest injuries
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