A kingdom is on the rise as Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic host Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Kia Center tonight. I've sifted through the NBA odds to find the best bet for this matchup between two emerging superstars.
The Magic have suffered several injuries to their roster and most recently lost Franz Wagner to a sprained ankle. Has that stopped the Magic from winning? Nope! Banchero has put the team on his back, averaging 34.3 points per game in January.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves remain at the top of the Western Conference standings and come into this game at full strength. The Timberwolves boast the best defensive rating in the NBA at 108.7, led by Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Rudy Gobert.
With Banchero surging in January, why am I looking at the Under for one of his NBA player props? Let's dive into my free NBA picks for the Timberwolves vs. Magic on Tuesday, January 9.
Timberwolves vs Magic odds
Timberwolves vs Magic predictions
Orlando Magic power forward Paolo Banchero is taking another leap right in front of our eyes in his sophomore season, and it is becoming increasingly clear that he is going to be a 1A superstar in the NBA. That being said, his assists prop on Tuesday against the Timberwolves has moved to a price where we have to hit the button on the Under.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a ton of positional size and rim protection on their roster. What does that mean for Banchero's assists prop? Well, I don't think you'll see them help as much as some other teams are forced to on Banchero, decreasing the potential number of assists we could see for Banchero.
On January 5 against the Denver Nuggets, Banchero dropped 11 dimes, but the Magic were using a different starting lineup. Goga Bitadze was out with an injury and Moritz Wagner drew the start at center. Banchero was able to run a ton of pick-and-roll sets with Wagner, and Wagner is sneaky good as a roll man in those set-ups. Not only will Bitadze be drawing the start tonight, but the Timberwolves will also have Rudy Gobert protecting the rim when Wagner does enter the game.
Banchero's assists total has been climbing with the increased production, but there is a second disruption for Banchero at this elevated number. Markelle Fultz has returned to the Magic's lineup as well. He is a pass-first point guard who looks to create for others and anytime Fultz is on the floor with Banchero, there is one less shooter for Banchero to target for assists.
Banchero is projected to drop five dimes against the Timberwolves, which is well below the total of 5.5 when you consider there is increased juice on the Over. Based on this projection, we can price Banchero at -160 to go Under the total of 5.5, but he is trading at -108 at Caesars.
My best bet: Paolo Banchero Under 5.5 assists (-108 at Caesars)
Timberwolves vs Magic same-game parlay
Paolo Banchero Under 5.5 assists
Jalen Suggs Under 2.5 made threes
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists
Jalen Suggs has been shooting the ball extremely well of late, but it's not like the sportsbooks are unaware of this and haven't adjusted his made threes prop to account for it. If we're going Under on Banchero's assists prop, we also need Suggs to miss some shots. These two bets are very connected, as many of Banchero's potential assists will be tied to how well Suggs and Caleb Houstan shoot.
While Karl-Anthony Towns going Over his assists prop isn't correlated to our best bet of Banchero Under 5.5 assists, it is a prop I am also placing a straight bet on tonight.
The potential assists have been down as of late for Towns, but this is a matchup where his assists numbers could get back on track. Towns' offensive advantage is his size and speed, but that advantage will be nullified by Banchero, who can match him. This should lead to more passing by Towns on his drives than we might typically see.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Timberwolves vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis
The Timberwolves opened as a 4.5-point favorite over the Magic at FanDuel, and we have seen that number climb to Timberwolves -5. Not only has the line moved from Timberwolves -4.5 to Timberwolves -5 at FanDuel, but we are also seeing increased juice on the visitors' side of the spread.
At DraftKings, the total opened at 219, and while it did drop as low as 216.5, it encountered some resistance in the market at that number and bumped back up to 217, where it currently sits. Make sure to shop around if you're betting on the total; we're seeing anywhere from 216.5 to 217.5 available for the game total, depending on where you shop.
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Timberwolves vs Magic betting trend to know
The Timberwolves have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Magic.
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Timberwolves vs Magic game info
| Location: | Kia Center, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 9, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, Bally Sports Florida |
Timberwolves vs Magic latest injuries
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