Timberwolves vs Pistons Picks and Predictions: Minnesota's Offense Runs Wild

Around this time last season, Anthony Edwards began a tangible second-half leap for the Minnesota Timberwolves, delivering a reason for hope in the future, with a ceiling as high as his vertical. 

Cade Cunningham's in a rookie season surge of his own and while it may not factor into Thursday's NBA betting outlook, to understand the transformative impact a young star can have all Detroit needs to do is look across the floor tonight. 

The hope Edwards brought has been delivered upon this year, and it will give the Detroit Pistons reason for optimism even in a tough matchup tonight, as our NBA picks and predictions outline with the 26-25 Wolves visiting the 12-38 Pistons.

Timberwolves vs Pistons odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Timberwolves opened as 6.5-point favorites, with action on Minnesota pushing it to -7 as of this morning. The total opened at as low as 225.5 but it has since been bet up to between 228.5 and 229.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Timberwolves vs Pistons predictions

• Prediction: Timberwolves -7 (-110)
• Prediction: Timberwolves team total Over 117.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Towns Over 1.5 3-pointers made (-140)

Predictions made on 2/3/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Timberwolves vs Pistons game info

• Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
• Date: Thursday, February 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSDET, BSN

Timberwolves vs Pistons betting preview

Injuries

Timberwolves: Patrick Beverley PG (Questionable), D'Angelo Russell PG (Questionable), Josh Okogie PF (Questionable).
Pistons: Cade Cunningham PG (Questionable), Josh Jackson SG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 8-1 in the Timberwolves' last nine games as the favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Pistons.

Timberwolves vs Pistons picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Minnesota Timberwolves successfully rebounded from a tough road trip out west, in which they faced the Warriors and Suns on a back-to-back, as they returned home this week.

Minnesota pick up two emphatic wins over divisional foes, first against the struggling Jazz by a 20-point margin and then against a 15-point win over the Nuggets that was over by half and made to look better by the Wolves' empty bench in the fourth quarter. The Wolves can make it three straight tonight against the lowly Pistons. 

For this Timberwolves team, as they've been playing since the turn to 2022, it shouldn't be a problem. Minnesota's offense has fully clicked, despite both lead guards in D'Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley missing time this month, and is playing to the level many expected ahead of the year.

Minnesota's second in the NBA in offensive rating in 2022, coming in at 118.2 and just trailing Phoenix's 118.3. Those two created distance between themselves and the rest of the NBA in January, with the gap between the Wolves and the No. 3 Nuggets the same as the gap between No. 9 Memphis and the No. 18 Lakers.

There's a lot that has gone into this breakout for the Wolves' offense. Karl-Anthony Towns is playing his best basketball of the year, facing up defenders with more frequency. Increased activity from the players around him cutting has unlocked Towns even further as a passer. A bench unit led by Jaylen Nowell and Taurean Prince has helped what was a woefully unimpactful unit.

Above all else, though? Sometimes shot luck just comes around. Minnesota's an efficient offense centered around threes and shots at the rim but nearly the entire roster was having poor shooting seasons out of the gate. When 2021 ended, the Wolves were 25th in the league in effective field goal percentage, at 50.7%. In the 15 games since then, Minnesota is third with an eFG% of 55.8.

There is a pretty clear element of sustainability to this offense and against Detroit, the Wolves could very well explode. No team takes more threes per game than Minnesota's 41.5 and when those fall, as they did throughout January, it can blow teams away. The Pistons are going to be in danger of that, as they have the league's second-worst 3-point percentage against, with teams converting 36.6% of shots from deep against them. 

And if Minnesota endures a cold shooting night? Well, Detroit's still in a world of trouble. The youthful Pistons, unsurprisingly, have the fifth-highest turnover rate in the NBA, coughing the ball up on 14.4% of possessions. What else do these exuberant Wolves do extremely well? Get out and run, with the sixth-most fastbreak points per game, fed by the league's fourth-highest steal rate.  

We've got an expectation of the Wolves having another explosive night on offense and we have the league's second-worst offense, adjusted for opponent, in the Pistons — potentially without Cade Cunningham — against the chaotic, relentless, and active Minnesota defense.

The Wolves have beaten bad teams by large margins pretty consistently this year and in a picture-perfect matchup, they'll have no trouble doing so again. 

Prediction: Timberwolves -7 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

There's plenty of reason to fade Detroit's offense tonight. It's a bad matchup for the Pistons, with a high turnover rate meeting a defense that thrives on playing passing lanes, using their length, and pressuring the ball relentlessly.

It's a tough matchup for leading scorer Jerami Grant, who will spend every second on the floor being hounded by Jarred Vanderbilt, an all-action superhero whose origin story started with a mad scientist trying to duplicate Dennis Rodman, and Jaden McDaniels, a similarly long, switchable defender who is equally adept on-ball as he is using his length to disrupt when trailing. 

Then there's the status of Cunningham, who has been coming on as of late but is questionable tonight with a hip pointer. He may play, but he'll be thrown into a matchup with Beverley and McDaniels if so. So, let's eliminate the need to count on Detroit at all here and instead turn to the Wolves' team total.

We outlined Minnesota's offensive prowess above and it's reason to take the Over on its team total tonight. The Wolves have been elite on offense for over a month, hitting their efficient collection of shots from three and the rim at a high rate. They've fixed what was a broken half-court offense, ranking first in the NBA there since January 3rd after sitting 26th before that date, when their starters returned from health protocols. 

Minnesota has averaged 120.3 points per game since January 1, and is coming off a four-game stretch in which it averaged 123.8 points, including a back-to-back despite against the league's two best defenses, despite Russell and Beverley playing a combined 35 minutes across those four games.

The Wolves are entering a much friendlier matchup here and one they'll have no trouble going Over their team total in.

Prediction: Timberwolves team total Over 117.5 (-120)

Best bet

Despite being one of the best shooters of all-time, regardless of position, with the ability to shoot over anyone on the perimeter, Towns' 3-point makes prop has consistently been set at 1.5 this year. When it is, it's an automatic bet from us. 

Towns is hitting 40% of his threes this year on 5.4 attempts per game, with nearly every Wolves observer on Earth begging for him to take them more often. Even still, Towns has hit multiple threes in 29 games this year, with volume almost always the only thing stopping him from doing so. 

The soon-to-be 2022 All-Star will be looking at another good night connecting from deep here, against a Detroit team 29th in opponent 3-point percentage. Towns can face up and shoot over defenders or go to a dangerous step-back, but he'll be afforded plenty of time on the perimeter tonight with defenders like Kelly Olynk and Isaiah Stewart forced to sag off him.

Against a downright bad defense and an underwhelming collection of bigs, Towns' shot — and this prop — will be cash. 

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 3-pointers made (-140)

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