Two squads jockeying for position in the Western Conference's middling glut will meet Tuesday night as the Los Angeles Clippers host the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Clippers have strung together four straight wins, while the Blazers have won back-to-back games. Someone's streak is ending tonight, so let's figure out who NBA bettors should back as we break down our Trail Blazers vs Clippers picks for November 9.
Trail Blazers vs Clippers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Clippers opened as 3.5-point favorites, with the spread being bet down to -3. The total opened around 222 at most books and has been bet down to 220.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Trail Blazers vs Clippers predictions
Predictions made on 11/9/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Trail Blazers vs Clippers game info
• Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Tuesday, November 9, 2021
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Trail Blazers vs Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Trail Blazers: None
Clippers: Marcus Morris PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Portland and L.A. are a combined 13-6 to the Under this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Clippers.
Trail Blazers vs Clippers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Clippers continue to keep their heads above water throughout Kawhi Leonard's latest load management sabbatical. Their weird brand of balanced perimeter pressure has produced four straight wins, albeit with three of them coming over the Thunder and Timberwolves.
Meanwhile, Portland is hoping to have snapped itself – and particularly superstar Damian Lillard – out of a brutal early-season slump.
There's a distinct stylistic tangent between these two squads that essentially comes down to offense vs. defense. The Clippers have the NBA's third-ranked defense, while the Blazers sport the NBA's sixth-ranked offense, deflated by Lillard's anomalous shooting funk.
The Clippers' ability to contain Dame will likely be the main inflection point of this matchup. Lillard barbecued the Lakers for 25 points in three quarters his last time out, but dropped a putrid four points on 2-13 shooting against Indiana prior to that. Lillard will gradually improve to the mean, but the Clippers' array of tough perimeter defenders won't make life easy for him.
Fortunately for the Blazers, they have CJ McCollum in tow, one of the NBA's more dangerous second options, who can carry a team's scoring load against an opponent like the Clippers that usually isn't looking for a shootout. Norman Powell, Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic round out a supporting cast that can still buoy this team, even if Dame doesn't finally erupt.
And while defense is the Clippers' calling card, the Blazers' once-mocked D might not actually be that awful this year. Portland's played the NBA's ninth-toughest schedule so far and held its opponents to a league-median 107.4 ppg. Their defense was ranked 29th league-wide last year, and has shot up to an adjusted 12th so far. We're not quite ready to call defense a competence for Portland, but under new coach Chauncey Billups, its early results are encouraging.
The Clippers have generally played above the sum of their parts since Kawhi went down, but their recent win streak reveals little about how good this team actually is. While Paul George has been spectacular and Reggie Jackson seems to officially be resuscitated, Portland's ceiling still feels higher, especially with Marcus Morris' absence eliminating some of the small-ball lineups that L.A. thrived with in last year's playoffs.
For what it's worth, these teams have met twice already this season, each scoring a blowout win. Tonight, we're taking Portland and the points, and the Blazers being motived to win their first road game of the season.
Prediction: Portland +3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
What at face value should be a tricky game to handicap, the total might be set a tad high for this game. Sitting anywhere between 219.5 and 221.5, we'd recommend shopping around for this number.
The Blazers are Clippers score a combined 217.3, so the total suggests room for upside on the scoreboard. The looming threat of Lillard breaking out of his slump makes this a very real possibility, as does the Clippers playing at the NBA's seventh-fastest pace (Portland holds down the league's median at 15th).
But overall, the Clippers would be best suited to slow this game down and not engage in a shootout in which the Blazers have much bigger guns. The Clippers have the clear edge on defense, whereas the Blazers no longer appear to be total sieves on that end.
Only one of Portland's last eight games has gone Over this total, while the Clippers are 2-5 against it in their last seven. The two games these teams played against each other averaged just 202.5 points, and while we expect this game to be both closer and higher-scoring, it should still slip Under.
Prediction: Under 221.5 (-110)
Best bet
One of the Blazers picking up the slack for Lillard's early scoring drought has been reserve guard Anfernee Simons, who's showing out so far in a contract year.
The fourth-year guard is still just 22 and, with a heftier dose of minutes, is hinting at plenty of the potential the Blazers saw in him.
Simons has almost doubled his scoring average to 14.0 ppg this season — a consistent bench spark that can benefit from under-the-radar status in minutes he shares with Lillard or McCollum.
Simons' points prop tonight sits at 11.5, a total he's surpassed in seven of his 10 games so far, including four of his last five. We like to give young breakout players the benefit of the upside doubt in these situations, and even against a tough Clippers defense, we're backing Simons to top this total.
Pick: Anfernee Simons Over 11.5 points (-115)
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