Trail Blazers vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Lowry-Less Miami Can't Stop Simons

The Portland Trail Blazers finally have CJ McCollum back in the lineup, but they’ll still be without Damian Lillard when they take on the Miami Heat on Wednesday night. Lillard is out indefinitely after undergoing abdominal surgery last week, and the Blazers might just be without him for the rest of the NBA season. 

Will Portland find a way to keep this game close against Miami? Find out in our best free NBA betting picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Heat.

Trail Blazers vs Heat odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The total was originally set at 215.5 and is now down between 213.5 and 214.5, despite a small majority of the bets coming in on the Over. As for the spread, the Blazers opened as 9-point underdogs and are getting 9.5 almost everywhere at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Trail Blazers vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: Trail Blazers +9.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Simons Over 5.5 assists (-142)

Predictions made on 01/19/2022 at 10:11 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Trail Blazers vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Wednesday, January 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSUN, ROOT-SP

Trail Blazers vs Heat betting preview

Injuries

Trail Blazers: Larry Nance Jr. F (Out), Cody Zeller C (Out), Norman Powell F (Out).
Heat: Kyle Lowry G (Out), KZ Okpala F (Out), Markieff Morris F (Out), Victor Oladipo G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Blazers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Heat.

Trail Blazers vs Heat picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

With Monday's 10-point win over the Orlando Magic, the Blazers have now won and covered in four of their last five contests. This team surely isn’t better without Lillard, but Portland has been a lot more competitive than expected. And while Miami is a lot better than just any other opponent, Kyle Lowry is going to be out tonight, making the job a little easier on the Blazers to keep this respectable. 

The Blazers should actually have the edge in the backcourt with Lowry out, as both Anfernee Simons and McCollum are plenty capable of getting hot. Sure, Tyler Herro can also do the same for the Heat, but it just isn’t the same without Lowry’s two-way presence. With that in mind, big performances could be on deck for the Portland duo, and that would make it hard for the Blazers not to cover. 

Portland just needs to make sure that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo don’t completely dominate this game. Both guys are likely in for big performances against Portland's non-existent defense, but it’s hard to envision those games doing enough to help Miami win by double digits without their floor general. 

For as tough as this season has been for the Blazers, Portland is also 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS when playing against Eastern Conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Heat are just 5-8 ATS when coming off of a home win this year. 

Prediction: Trail Blazers +9.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under is 4-1-1 in the last six games the Blazers have played against opponents with winning percentages above 60%. It’s also 5-2 in the seven games in which Portland is coming off a straight-up win. This Blazers team also happens to be playing some low-scoring games directly leading into this one, as the Under is 4-2 in the team’s last six contests. Don’t expect that to change in a meeting with the defensively-minded Heat tonight. 

The Under is actually 3-1 in Miami’s last four games and the team remains in the Top 10 in defensive rating this season. On top of that, the Heat are also 28th in the league in pace of play and they’ll definitely try to slow the Blazers down tonight. 

Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)

Best bet

Not only has Simons been scoring at an extremely high level since getting the opportunity to run Portland's offense, but the young guard is also doing a good job of finding his teammates. He’s had at least six assists in each of his last seven games, and that trend continued when McCollum made his return to the lineup in the win over the Magic. 

Now that we’ve seen what this offense looks like with McCollum in tow, it still seems like a great value to continue riding Simons’ assists props. Portland isn’t going to just go away from him as a high-usage player, and he really should hit this mark — even in a tough matchup against Miami. 

Pick: Anfernee Simons Over 5.5 assists (-142)

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