The Los Angeles Lakers have a habit of playing to the level of their competition.
That can be a good thing, like in recent wins over Oklahoma City and Dallas, but it’s also a bad thing, as evidenced by L.A.’s 130-112 loss to Brooklyn on Friday.
That tendency to match the quality of opponent hasn’t worked for Lakers bettors either, with Los Angeles boasting a 3-7 ATS record in its last 10 outings.
Given the NBA odds have L.A. installed as a double-digit favorite hosting the Portland Trail Blazers tonight, it’s understandable why some basketball fans would be hesitant to wager on the home team.
I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this Western Conference clash and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Lakers on January 21.
Trail Blazers vs Lakers odds
Trail Blazers vs Lakers predictions
The Portland Trail Blazers’ league-low offensive troubles could be even worse tonight.
Given the current injury reports, Portland could be missing leading scorer Anfernee Simons (illness), third-leading scorer Shaedon Sharpe (out), and rookie reserve Scoot Henderson (questionable) against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.
Add it up and you’re looking at roughly 48% of the team’s total scoring up in the air. What’s more, those cluster injuries in the backcourt also take the motor out of an offense that was already puttering at a go-kart pace rating of 98.89 (18th).
Portland is averaging a mere 104.5 points per road game this season, with that clip sliding to just 102.5 since December. The Trail Blazers are shooting just shy of 41% from the field inside rival arenas in that span and are 2-8 Over/Under against their team total in their last 10 road outings.
Tonight’s matchup with the Lakers has Portland’s team total at 108.5 points O/U, which is a big ask not only due to those backcourt aliments but also Los Angeles’ homecourt defense.
The Lakers protect the Crypto.com Arena better than most, ranking No. 5 in advanced defensive rating. They’ve checked visitors to just over 112 points per contest, limiting foes to 45.4% success from the floor. It’s the reason L.A. has such a crazy home/away split in total results (8-14 O/U as hosts, 14-6 O/U as visitors).
It should be noted Los Angeles is coming off a poor defensive outing on its own floor in the 130-112 loss to the Nets on Friday. Sixty-eight of Brooklyn's points came in the second half, which serves as a slap in the face for L.A. ahead of this weekend's contest.
The Lakers watched the Nets connect on 53% of their field goal attempts and score 56 points in the paint — a big effort from a team scoring less than 120 points on average. The reason for the defensive lapse wasn't lost on Los Angeles, with Anthony Davis immediately calling out his team for specific errors.
“A lot of miscommunication,” Davis told reporters when asked about the defense's issues. “When we were supposed to go over screens, we went under some. We score, and then they come back and get a wide-open layup in transition, which doesn’t make sense.
“Miscommunication where we’re helping probably where we shouldn’t. The coverage is kind of messed up. They’re swinging the ball and guys are getting wide-open 3s. Just things like that that we’ve been able to control the past couple games and just didn’t do it in the third quarter.”
As it pertains to this matchup, the Blazers are very dependent on their guards to create out of pick-and-roll sets, specifically running the ball handler off screens (third-highest rate). Los Angeles, however, is one of the better defenses at defending pick-and-roll schemes, ranking Top 10 in opponent scoring frequency against those offenses.
If the backcourt is down those key cogs, Portland is left to rely on ball movement and cuts to get open in the halfcourt set much more than it would like, which means more passing and possessions running deeper into the shot clock.
Portland may not have the firepower or the number of possessions to push their output Over this team total.
My best bet: Trail Blazers team total Under 108.5 (-107 at Pinnacle)
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Trail Blazers vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
Portland packs up a little bit of momentum on its way to La-La Land this weekend, coming off back-to-back wins at home last week. However, the Blazers have had trouble showing up on the road, owning a 5-17 SU record (10-12 ATS) as visitors and winning just once in their last 11 away games (3-8 ATS).
Those road woes factor into the opening spread for this game with Los Angeles, with oddsmakers opening the Lakers as big as 11.5-point home favorites. That spread has started to tick down, sitting as low as -10 on Sunday morning, with rumblings that star center Anthony Davis may sit out.
Davis is no stranger to the injury report but is dealing with an Achilles injury (beyond his usual ankle injury) and L.A. has a huge rivalry meeting with the Clippers on Tuesday. The possibility of A.D. resting is high, considering we’re seeing the line move away from the Lakers.
LeBron James is also on the injury report, which is nothing new, as well as forwards Cam Reddish (probable) and Taurean Prince. That does have the Lakers’ frontcourt running thin, should one or two more forwards sit out.
As for the Blazers, they have questions in their backcourt with starting guard and leading scorer Anfernee Simons dealing with an illness and rookie guard Scoot Henderson coming off a nose injury. Portland is already missing guard Shaedon Sharpe, who sits third in team scoring (15.9 ppg).
The Trail Blazers need all the points they can muster considering they sit dead last in the NBA in road scoring (104.5 ppg) as well as advanced offensive rating away from home. That’s trickled down to a 10-12 Over/Under record on the road.
If Los Angeles does anything consistent, it’s defend home court. The Purple and Gold give up only 112 points against inside Crypto.com Arena and rank No. 5 in defensive rating at home — a big reason why the Lakers are 8-14 Over/Under as hosts (but 14-6 O/U on the road).
Tonight’s total hit the board at 227.5 points and is sitting at 228 O/U as of Sunday morning.
Trail Blazers vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Lakers have gone Under the total in 32 of their last 48 home games, good for +14.35 units / 27% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Lakers.
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Trail Blazers vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, January 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ROOT Sports Plus, Spectrum SportsNet |
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