Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Lillard Delivers in Denver

With 13 wins in a row at Ball Arena, there’s no place like home for the Denver Nuggets, and they’ll look to extend that hot streak as they host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.

The Nuggets, tied with the Grizzlies for the best record in the Western Conference, haven’t lost at home since December 6, but they needed a late Nikola Jokic 3-pointer to see off the Magic on Sunday.

After a rough start to 2023 and a five-game skid, the Trail Blazers steadied the ship with back-to-back victories over the Mavericks at the weekend and hold the final play-in spot entering tonight’s contest. 

Learn more in our free Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions ahead of tip-off tonight.

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets best odds

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets picks and predictions

By his high standards, Damian Lillard got off to a slow start in January, capped by 7-for-24 shooting in a loss to the Pacers. Since then, he’s gone supernova to try to haul the Trail Blazers back on track. Lillard has scored 30 or more points in each of his last five games, including a 50-point explosion in a losing effort against the Cavaliers.

He was electric in this weekend’s two-game set against the Mavericks, scoring a combined 76 points and making all 26 of his free throws. If he wasn’t already on the list of All-Star reserves, he’s surely a lock now.

Lillard has served up some of his best shooting nights against the Nuggets over the years, and that’s certainly been the case this season. He’s averaged 35 points over the teams’ three meetings so far, highlighted by a 40-point night with nine triples in early December.  

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a solid defender, should get the Lillard assignment again for large chunks of tonight’s showdown, but that hasn’t overly bothered the Trail Blazers guard in the past matchups.

With Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Jusuf Nurkic scoring efficiently, as they did on Sunday, it opens up the floor for Lillard so he can pick his spots. The Portland offense arrives in Denver after good shooting performances over the weekend.

While Gary Payton II is likely to play tonight and should be able to slightly lighten the minutes load on Lillard, I expect Chauncey Billups to continue to lean heavily on his star man. With Lillard cooking defenses over the past week, I like these odds for another big scoring night.

My best bet: Damian Lillard Over 31.5 points (+102)

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets spread analysis

The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites for all the obvious reasons: They’ve been consistently dominant at Ball Arena, they’ve won four of the last five matchups against Portland, and Nikola Jokic continues to churn out MVP-level play. 

But it goes deeper than that. Denver is getting terrific minutes from Aaron Gordon (25 points against Orlando) and it’s easy to trust an offense that can also dial up plays for Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray. The hosts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and this is a short enough spread to feel good about the Nuggets’ superior depth shining through.

While you can never count out a 3-point barrage from Lillard and Simons, the Blazers have had ups and downs with their youthful second unit this season, and they’ve failed to cover the spread in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 

Keep in mind too that one of Portland’s wins over Dallas this weekend came with Luka Doncic sitting out.

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

Despite the potential for offensive fireworks with Jokic and Lillard on the court together, both teams have been trending more toward the Under lately. It’s hit in the Nuggets’ last four games after an ATS loss and in the Trail Blazers’ last six road games against teams with a winning home record.

The Under is all the more interesting with some of the strong one-on-one defenders on show tonight. Caldwell-Pope and Gordon give the Nuggets defensive steel, while the Blazers are a better team on that end of the floor when Payton II is available to pressure opposing guards.

While the Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Denver, we may see a total here that’s closer to the teams’ last showdown — a 120-107 win for the Nuggets on December 23.

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Nuggets haven’t just been winning at home during this hot stretch, they’ve been covering the spread too. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets.

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