An important contest when it comes to the Western Conference play-in tournament takes place in the Big Easy tonight, when the Portland Trail Blazers battle the New Orleans Pelicans.
Both teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to the cut off for the play-in, with Portland parked in 13th place and just one game behind New Orleans in 11th. The Blazers are trying to break even in the final outing of a six-game road trip while the Pels have only two wins in their last nine contests, sliding way down the standings.
I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for this matchup and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazersvs. Pelicans on March 12.
Trail Blazers vs Pelicans best odds
Trail Blazers vs Pelicans picks and predictions
The Trail Blazers see a familiar face on the other end Sunday night, facing off against former guard C.J. McCollum.
McCollum, who was traded to New Orleans from Portland during last season’s deadline, has been a constant source of scoring for the injury-plagued Pelicans. He’s played 60 games and is averaging more than 21 points per contest, with that output spiking so far in March.
He's erupted for big games this month, including a 26-point performance against Oklahoma City last night in which he finished just 8-for-20 from the floor, but knocked down four 3-pointers and went 6-for-6 from the foul line.
McCollum has a point prop of 23.5 for tonight’s game — a mark he’s topped in four of five games this month — including 24 points on the road against his former team on March 1.
Portland doesn't present the toughest task defensively, either. The Blazers sit near the bottom third in a number of defensive metrics, especially when it comes to protecting the arc, and gives up the fifth most points to starting guards this season.
C.J. also enjoy the comforts of home, scoring almost two more points per home stand compared to the road and sees a significant uptick in his 3-point success: 3.2 makes on 41.8% shooting at home vs. 2.4 makes on 34.2% shooting on the road.
As of this writing, Ingram is listed as questionable to play tonight after head coach Willie Green said it was possible Ingram could be back Sunday after sitting out Saturday’s matchup with OKC. If Ingram does miss out, expect McCollum’s point prop to soar upwards.
We’re getting out ahead of any updates and taking the Over on the lowest total available, as we’ve seen some shops deal McCollum’s scoring prop as high as 24.5.
My best bet: C.J. McCollum Total Points Over 23.5 (-122)
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Trail Blazers vs Pelicans spread analysis
New Orleans opened as big as 1.5-point home chalk for this game, with Portland star Damian Lillard listed as a game-time decision. However, with Lillard now leaning toward probable for Sunday’s showcase, this spread is swinging toward the Blazers and sits as high as Portland -2 at some shops.
The Pelicans are playing the second of back-to-back contests after losing to Oklahoma City at home Saturday. NOLA's star forward Brandon Ingram sat out that loss to OKC with sore foot and is a game-time decision for Sunday’s outing. The team is still missing star Zion Williamson as it free falls down the standings.
The Trail Blazers are coming off a crushing loss in Philadelphia Friday in which they coughed up a 21-point lead and lost on a last-second shot to the Sixers. During this trip, the team picked up wins at Orlando and Detroit before losing at Boston on March 8, and is a buzzer-beater away from being 3-1 SU in its last four (it is 3-1 ATS in that span).
The Pels beat Portland 121-110 on the road on March 1, getting a massive 40-point game from Ingram and shooting a collective 52% from the floor in that win, covering as a closing 3-point road pup. They were just 9 of 25 from 3-point range in that game but scored 58 points in the paint against a Portland team playing the second of back-to-back nights.
On the season, the Blazers are 34-33 ATS overall and 17-18 ATS on the road. The Pelicans are 30-36-1 ATS with an 18-15 ATS record at home.
Trail Blazers vs Pelicans Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under total opened at 230.5 points and has bounced between that number and 231.5. That’s a tick lower than the 235.5-point closing total for their March 1 matchup in Portland, which opened at 232.5 points. The team finished below that total with the Pels taking a 121-110 road win.
New Orleans is a sound defense inside the Smoothie King Center, boasting the 11th-best defensive rating while owning a +4.6 net rating at a host. On the season, the Pelicans are 14-19 O/U at home and have been one of the best Under bets in the NBA since February, going 2-10 O/U in their last dozen games.
The Blazers continue to struggle defensively, but a lack of offensive pop has produced more Under results for the team during this recent road-heavy schedule. Portland has played six of its last seven as a visitor, shooting just 45.6% from the field for an average of 110 points in that span. That’s manifested itself in a 2-5 O/U count.
Overall, the Trail Blazers are 31-34-2 O/U which includes a 13-22 O/U mark on the road — the best road Under team in the Western Conference. New Orleans is 33-34 O/U on the season.
Trail Blazers vs Pelicans betting trend to know
The Under is 12-5 in Trail Blazers’ last 17 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans.
Trail Blazers vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, March 12, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Root Sports, Bally New Orleans |
