The Portland Trail Blazers close out an Eastern Conference road trip North of the Border when they visit the Toronto Raptors on Sunday.
Toronto is an 8-point NBA betting favorite at home – its first game inside Scotiabank Arena in nearly two weeks. The Raptors are still without fans in the stands due to provincial COVID restrictions but have generated their own homecourt edge in recent homestands, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as hosts.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers at Raptors on January 23.
Trail Blazers vs Raptors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as 7.5-point home chalk and jumped as high as -8.5 before buyback on the Blazers trimmed this line to -8. The total hit the board at 214.5 and moved up to 215 before slimming to 213 on Sunday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Trail Blazers vs Raptors predictions
Predictions made on 01/23/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Trail Blazers vs Raptors game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Sunday, January 23, 2023
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN, ROOT SPORT PLUS
Trail Blazers vs Raptors betting preview
Injuries
Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard PG (Out), Larry Nance F (Out), Norman Powell G (Out), Cody Zeller C (Out), Dennis Smith G (Questionable), Nassir Little F (Questionable).
Raptors: Goran Dragic G (Out), David Johnson G (Out), Khem Birch C (Out), Isaac Bonga F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Raptors are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Raptors.
Trail Blazers vs Raptors picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The motivations of the Trail Blazers are in question at the best of times, with Portland sitting near the bottom of the Western Conference standings and star Damian Lillard sidelined after surgery on an abdominal injury.
But with Portland playing out the final leg of a six-game road trip and coming off an upset win at Boston two days ago, the focus could be on getting back home and not so much closing out this stretch with a win Sunday.
Toronto, on the other hand, could be feeling the pinch to pick up wins at home with just two home dates separating road trips this month. Following this matchup with Portland, the Raps host Charlotte then hit go stateside for another three road games to wrap up January.
The Raptors’ recent success against the spread at home has been bolstered by an offense seeing an uptick in production. Since a December 18 win over Golden State in Toronto, the Raps are averaging 114.4 points per game at home – a huge improvement on their season scoring rate of fewer than 107 points per outing.
Those buckets have been the benefit of some solid defensive work, creating turnovers and flipping those mistakes into easy points. In that same frame, Toronto has averaged 10 steals per home game, adding up to 16.6 turnovers from opponents, and panning out to 19.4 points off of turnovers in those last eight games inside Scotiabank Arena.
Portland has struggled with turnovers during this current road trip, coughing the ball up more than 15 times per game over the past five outings. The Trail Blazers face one of the scrappier defenses in the NBA in Toronto tonight, with the Raptors high in hustle metrics including No. 1 in pass deflections and No. 2 in loose balls recovered. Those efforts have Toronto sitting second in steals per game in the league at 9.2 swipes an outing.
We like Toronto’s aggressiveness to pay off against a road-weary Blazers team tonight.
Prediction: Raptors -8 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
As mentioned, Toronto has held its own on offense at home the past month, thanks to those easy buckets in transition. The Raptors averaged just over 99 points during their five-game away swing, which is helping skew this number lower.
Portland, which ranks 29th in defensive rating, has given up 109.4 average points on this current road trip while playing some slower-tempo teams, like Miami, Boston, Denver and Washington. The Raptors are also among the more methodical attacks in the NBA, but this total feels too low considering the company and situational matchup.
Portland often finds itself trailing, which means plenty of chucks from deep in an effort to catch up. The Blazers sit seventh in 3-point attempts per outing and knocked down 16 triples (on 33 attempts) in the win over Boston on Friday.
The Raptors aren’t great at defending the arc and while their ability to transform turnovers into points has been great at home the past eight homestands, they’ve still allowed foes to shoot 37% from distance and make 19 3-pointers an outing in that span. Toronto is 6-2 Over/Under at home since Dec. 18.
Prediction: Over 213 (-110)
Best bet
The Trail Blazers have won three of their last four contests, most recently a thrilling comeback win against the Celtics on Friday night.
Considering the state of the franchise heading into this road trip, with just two road wins on the year before winning at Washington on January 15, that recent output is a job well done.
That success, however, sets up Portland for a prime situational sandwich spot: a letdown from Friday’s win and a look ahead to a couple days off back home on the West Coast.
The Blazers have started strong in their past four games but Toronto’s physical play will eventually wear on Portland and the Raptors will pull away to cover in the second half.
Pick: Raptors -8 (-110)
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