The Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the Portland Trail Blazers to Paycom Center in NBA action on Friday night.
OKC has been practically unbeatable at home but is sending out a shell of its usual team tonight, which is why my Trail Blazers vs. Thunder predictions are backing the visitors. Here are my best free NBA picks for this Northwest Division showdown on March 7.
Trail Blazers vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Trail Blazers moneyline (+125 at bet365)
My analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played eight games in seven cities within the last 13 days. With fatigue and minor injuries starting to show, coach Mark Daigneault has decided to rest key players tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Cason Wallace have been ruled out, while Chet Holmgren is a game-time decision. Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA MVP odds favorite while Williams is also an All-Star, and when you add Hartenstein and Wallace to the mix, that's a group that will be sorely missed.
If the Thunder don't have Holmgren, they'll be led by Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
The Portland Trail Blazers are also banged up with centers Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III out, while Jerami Grant and Deni Avdija are questionable. That said, they still have their backcourt intact with Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. Versatile forward Toumani Camara is also good to go while rookie Donovan Clingan is more than capable of holding down the fort.
The Blazers are 15-7 with a net rating of +7.1 over their previous 22 games. This is a scrappy young team that has been playing hard over the last couple of months, and I expected them to be competitive even if OKC was at full strength. With the Thunder resting most of their starters, I'll gladly take the Blazers at plus money.
Trail Blazers vs Thunder same-game parlay
Trail Blazers ML
Aaron Wiggins Under 21.5 points
Anfernee Simons Over 21.5 points
With virtually all their top scorers sidelined, somebody needs to score for the Thunder. The books expect Wiggins to be that player and have set the O/U on his points at 21.5.
Even with Wiggins likely being OKC's No. 1 option, this number is too high for a career backup that has cracked the 20-point plateau just once in his last 10 games. Especially with Portland ranking sixth in the league in defensive rating since the start of January.
The Thunder are missing lots of offensive production but guys like Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Wallace are also high-end perimeter defenders. Without them in the lineup they'll struggle to contain Simons, who has dropped 25+ points in five of his last seven games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Trail Blazers vs Thunder odds
Trail Blazers vs Thunder live odds
Trail Blazers vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Portland +3 | Oklahoma City -3
- Moneyline: Portland +140 | Oklahoma City -165
- Over/Under: Over 229 | Under 229
Odds courtesy of bet365
Trail Blazers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The initial line had the Thunder as 15-point faves before re-opening at -3 following the injury report.
- The total opened at 237 and re-opened at 229. Early money brought it down to 226.5 before buyback on the Over pushed it to 229.5.
- The Over is 7-1 in OKC's last eight games while going 7-3 in Portland's previous 10 contests.
- OKC has won the last 15 meetings between these division rivals but Portland covered the spread in four of the last five.
Trail Blazers vs Thunder trend
The Blazers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Trail Blazers vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Friday, 3-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KUNP, FanDuel Sports Network-Oklahoma |
Trail Blazers vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
