Warriors vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: They Don't Want War

The Golden State Warriors are in deep trouble. Reports revealed yesterday that the shoulder injury Steph Curry suffered in Wednesday’s game against the Indiana Pacers would keep the two-time MVP out for at least a few weeks. Their first challenge without Curry? To go on the road to upset a Philadelphia 76ers team that has won three in a row and started to click.

Can a wounded Warriors team find a way to cobble together enough two-way play in Steph’s absence to tread water? Or will a blowout loss to Philadelphia signal the beginning of the end for this Golden State season?

Our NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. 76ers are banking on Philadelphia to crush Golden State in their first game without Steph.

Warriors vs 76ers best odds

Warriors vs 76ers picks and predictions

It would be almost impossible to overstate the impact that losing Steph Curry will have on this Golden State Warriors team. Steph was arguably having his best season as a pro, which is saying something for a guy who has the league's only unanimous MVP trophy somewhere in his house.

He was averaging 30 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 6.8 assists on 66.8% true shooting, despite the fact that many of his teammates have struggled to produce alongside him. His 138.4 points per shot attempt would be a career high per Cleaning the Glass, and Golden State goes from a +7 net rating when he plays to a -11.1 when he sits (including a nausea-inducing sub-100 offensive rating).

On the season then, the Warriors are +145 when Steph plays and -127 when he sits. They quite literally go from contender to bottom-feeder.  That’s not even accounting for the ongoing absence of Andrew Wiggins, who has been arguably the Warriors' second-best player since the 2022 playoffs. Wiggins gives them an athletic lift they’re otherwise sorely lacking, solid perimeter shooting, a bit of self-creation, and an on-ball dog who creates turnovers that feed Golden State’s transition attack. 

All of this comes at a time when Philadelphia has never looked better. The Sixers are still waiting for the return of Tyrese Maxey, but Joel Embiid and James Harden have figured out the right balance of isolation to pick-and-roll play, and to devastating results. The 76ers +7.7 net rating over the last two weeks ranks, fourth in the NBA, and they’ve had the third-best offense in that same span.

The Warriors are also uniquely ill-suited to beat Philadelphia because they’re so prone to fouling. And fouling is the one thing you absolutely cannot do against Embiid and Harden if you want to hang around. The degree to which Golden State, a team loaded with veteran players, self-sabotages its defense by gifting free throws is almost unbelievable. The Dubs commit the second most personal fouls of any team, just narrowly behind the Detroit Pistons, an outfit giving major rotation minutes to literal rookies and sophomores. 

Steve Kerr and this group might carve out an identity to survive without Steph at some point, but that isn’t going to happen overnight. I was minorly shocked this line came in where it did given the Warriors’ noted struggles on the road and without Steph. It’s the best bet on the board for Friday’s game.

My best bet: 76ers -7.5 (-105 at Betway)

Warriors vs 76ers spread analysis

While Curry’s absence is the reason this line has ballooned to -7.5, there was a strong statistical case to back Philadelphia even prior to his injury. The 76ers’ recent turnaround begins at home, where they’re now 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. And they prey on teams like Golden State who are shaky away from home, leading to a 5-0 ATS record in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record.

In addition to the 76ers’ recent streak, Golden State has remained a pitiful road team. It has a pathetic 2-13 record on the road this season, and is also 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600%. Good teams win at home, great teams win on the road, and the Warriors right now cannot beat a quality opponent away from their own barn.

And even when fully healthy, the Wells Fargo Center is one of the few arenas where Golden State has consistently underperformed in recent years. The Warriors are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 meetings in Philadelphia.

Warriors vs 76ers Over/Under analysis

231.5 seems like a gigantic Total when you consider that Philadelphia is the fifth-ranked defense in the NBA and that Golden State has, at times, been one of the best defensive teams of this era. But that Top-5 76ers ranking has been slipping with Harden’s return just as their offense has been picking up, and they’ve been closer to the middle of the pack than the elite on that end over the past five games.

The Warriors' defense has been getting better recently even in the absence of Wiggins, but I don’t know that much about that is sustainable. Particularly as their offense is about to suffer so much with Curry out, as they’re likely to see more turnovers and more opponents attacking off live ball defensive rebounds. Plus, Jordan Poole will have to slide into Curry’s spot at the head of the snake with Steph out, which should juice the Warriors' offense only slightly less than their opponents.

The Warriors have had some epic collapses on the road recently, many of which start with defensive breakdowns and live ball turnovers. And when it goes for the Dubs. It really goes. The third quarter run used to be the signature deathblow given by those dominant Warriors teams. Now in an ironic inversion, their road collapses are similarly emphatic. That’s contributed to the Over cashing in all five of the Warriors’ last five road games.

I’m skeptical it cashes again though, Golden State’s offense has just been so rudderless without Steph that I’m going to need to see it to believe it before I lay another Warriors Over.

Warriors vs 76ers betting trend to know

Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. 76ers.

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