Warriors vs Hawks Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Bounce Back at Home

On Friday, the Atlanta Hawks will look to rebound from a bad loss to the Pistons by defeating the Golden State Warriors at State Farm Arena.

The Warriors are going to be without Steph Curry for the next couple of weeks, so they’ll need to find a way to continue winning games without him.

Will Golden State earn a big victory over Trae Young and Co. on the road?

Keep reading our free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Hawks on March 25 to find out.

Warriors vs Hawks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Hawks opened as 2.5-point favorites in this game, yet we haven’t seen much line movement at all. Atlanta is still laying 2.5 across most books right now. As for the total, the number opened at 221 and is a little all over the place. It’s mostly still at the opening number, but you can also find it for 220.5 or 222 at some books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs Hawks predictions

• Prediction: Hawks -2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 220.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Young Over 36.5 points and assists (-113)

Predictions made on 3/25/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Warriors vs Hawks game info

• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Friday, March 25, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV

Warriors vs Hawks betting preview

Key injuries

Warriors: Andre Iguodala F (Questionable), Steph Curry G (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Hawks: Danilo Gallinari F (Probable), Skylar Mays G (Probable), Lou Williams G (Probable), Collins F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Hawks are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven homes games against teams with winning road records. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Hawks.

Warriors vs Hawks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Not only have the Hawks covered in their last seven home games against teams with winning road records, but they’re also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against teams with winning percentages of 60% or better.

Atlanta is also 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when coming off a straight-up loss. Now, the Hawks will look to channel the anger from their blowout loss to the Pistons by using that energy to try and defeat a Warriors team that is without Curry at the moment.

Jordan Poole has been great since seeing his usage rate increase, but Curry is the best shooter on the planet. Even when he’s not hitting shots at a high clip, his presence on the floor completely changes the way teams play defense against Golden State. With him out, the Hawks can focus on everybody else without having to worry about sending help at Curry.

Poole is also worse on the defensive end than Curry is, which isn’t great in a meeting with a Hawks team that is third in the league in offensive rating at 114.3. That number actually goes up to 117.0 when the team is playing at home, which would be tops in the league if it was how they played everywhere. Look for Young’s ability to create off the dribble to really bother this Warriors team, even with Draymond Green back in the lineup.

Green is one of the best help defenders on the planet, but Atlanta isn’t going to be afraid to run actions at him. Young is as good as it gets at attacking the basket, and he’s not going to be scared of this matchup. Look for him to calmly find ways to score for himself or kick to his open teammates for open threes.

Young has an extremely high basketball IQ, and he’s capable of wrecking a Golden State team that will need some time to find its early-season form on defense — but will struggle to do so until the rotation is fully intact.

Prediction: Hawks -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Over is 9-2 in the last 11 games in which Atlanta is the favorite, and it’s also 8-3 in the last 11 games the Hawks have played at home. As previously mentioned, this Atlanta team is as good as it gets offensively when playing at home, and it’s not like Golden State is just back to being the best defensive team in the league now that Green is back.

The team is seventh in the NBA in defensive rating over the four games he’s played since he returned, which is actually down from their ranking of second in the league in defensive rating on the season.

Also, we mentioned it early, but Poole has been outstanding on the offensive end since entering the starting lineup. The 22-year-old is averaging 24.5 points and 4.8 rebounds per game in the month of March, and he should be able to put up some big numbers in this one.

Over bettors will also like the fact that he isn’t great on the defensive end, as it will only mean more points here.

Prediction: Over 220.5 (-110)

Best bet

Young had 28 points and nine assists when the Hawks faced the Warriors on November 8, which would have been good enough for this player prop to hit. Now, Atlanta is playing without Collins, which means that Young is being counted on to do even more on the offensive end.

With that, you should expect him to be extremely aggressive in this game, whether it’s looking for his own shot or attacking just to create looks for his teammates. While Poole has been great for the Warriors in an increased offensive role, the young guard is a downgrade from Curry on the defensive end.

Young shouldn’t have much trouble getting back him in this game, and he should also be able to create a lot of space when he looks to get to his jumper.

Pick: Young Over 36.5 points and assists (-113)

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