Steph Curry sure is showing how valuable he is to the Golden State Warriors after the Dubs lost to the Orlando Magic last night.
Things only get tougher from here on out as they’ll play their second game in as many nights, this time against the Eastern Conference-leading Miami Heat.
Can the Warriors bounce back and provide value as a big underdog, or will the Heat be too much and get the job done as home chalk?
Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Heat on March 23.
Warriors vs Heat odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Warriors opened this matchup as 7-point road dogs and then they basically threw in the towel, announcing that both Draymond Green and Klay Thompson both will sit this one out to rest. The line then reopened at Heat -10.5 but has been bet down to -9.5.
The total hit the board at 213.5 and then was reposted at 208.5, and the early money on the reposted number has been on the Over and currently sits at 209.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Heat predictions
- Prediction: Heat -9.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 209.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Under 209.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Jordan Poole Over 24.5 points (-115)
Predictions made on 3/23/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Heat game info
• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Wednesday, March 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun-Miami, NBCS-Bay Area
Warriors vs Heat betting preview
Key injuries
Warriors: Steph Curry PG (Out), Draymond Green PF (Out), Klay Thompson SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Heat: Jimmy Butler SF (Questionable), Tyler Herro SG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Warriors' last seven games overall and is 6-2 in Heat's last eight after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Heat.
Warriors vs Heat picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
It has been an interesting season for the Warriors. They got off to a fantastic start thanks to playing great team defense and Steph Curry reminding everyone why he’s a perennial MVP contender. Plus, they were getting sharpshooter Klay Thompson back.
But then Draymond Green got hurt, the defense took a hit, and now Curry is out for the foreseeable future. It was capped with an embarrassing 94-90 loss to the Magic last night. So, Steve Kerr has taken it upon himself to give his guys an extra rest and sit this game out tonight.
The Heat are coming off a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers but still sit atop the Eastern Conference standings by two games. Miami is a well-balanced team, ranking sixth in defensive rating and are particularly strong on the defensive end, where they rank fourth.
So, the question here is obviously, can the Heat cover the big 9.5-point spread against this Warriors B Team?
Well, for starters it will be hard to predict what the Warriors will do missing so many key pieces on top of playing the second half of a back-to-back. We do know they put up just 90 points last night against a Magic team that is not exactly known for its defense.
They’ll face a Heat team that ranks fourth in scoring defense, fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and is one of the best rebounding teams in the league.
Miami is just 2-6 ATS this season when laying more than 10 points, but it’s just impossible to back this version of the Warriors, particularly if Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are both able to go.
Prediction: Heat -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
While the side seems like a toss-up, the total looks like a more solid bet, more specifically, the Under.
As noted, the Warriors put up just 90 points last night against the Magic and are averaging just 95.3 points per game since the game where Curry got hurt. And the Heat, of course, give up just 104.9 points per game.
While Miami has an efficient offense and is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, the Heat don’t put up a ton of points. Their 109.5 points per game rank 17th in the NBA. They also play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, ranking 28th in that category.
Even at a low number of 209.5 bet the Under with confidence here.
Prediction: Under 209.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Under makes the board as one of our best bets in this game but we’re not stopping there, and someone is going to have to put up some points for the Warriors. Who better than Jordan Poole.
Poole has been happy to take more shots whenever it has been asked of him this season and he has averaged 27.7 points in the three games since Curry got hurt, putting up no fewer than 26 points in each.
Yes, Miami is a great defense, but they could get up big here and lighten up a bit, allowing Poole more room to work. Bet on him to eclipse his point total.
Pick: Under 209.5 (-110)
Pick: Jordan Poole Over 24.5 points (-115)
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