Warriors vs Lakers Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Crown Still Down

After a suffocating defensive performance in Game 1, the Los Angeles Lakers sprung a leak in Game 2, allowing the Golden State Warriors to even the series on the backs of a 127-100 blowout victory.

L.A. may have earned the split, but the Warriors' adjustments have changed the tenor of the series. It will take a resurgent performance by Anthony Davis and the Lakers' defense to corral Steph Curry and reaffirm homecourt advantage on Saturday, May 6.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 3 of Warriors vs. Lakers check in on LeBron James’ scoring struggles so far in the postseason, and why they’re a good bet to continue.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 3 best odds

Warriors vs Lakers Game 3 picks and predictions

They say Father Time is undefeated. You would be forgiven for checking the box score to be certain though, given all that LeBron James has accomplished in what is now his 20th season in the NBA. 

The cracks are beginning to show however, whether that’s age or his mysterious foot tendon injury that nearly saw him have season-ending surgery is anyone's guess, but right now there’s value to be had doing the once unthinkable and betting against the King.

LeBron’s offensive drop-off in these playoffs has been stark. James is shooting 21.1% from three in the playoffs, more than 10% worse than what was already a disappointing 31.1% regular-season mark.  And though he made 3-8 from downtown in Game 2, one of those was a heave that ended up banking in because it missed the mark so badly.

Through eight playoff games, LeBron is averaging just 22.3 points (and down to 20.8 over his last five). And yet LeBron has seen his prop number jump to 26.5 for Saturday’s game, presumably because the Lakers are expected to get a boost from playing at home. But LeBron’s home games have not been a scoring panacea either, as he’s averaging just 23 per contest through three games in L.A. LeBron has hit the Under on his points prop now in six straight games, and there’s good reason to believe that will continue.

Andrew Wiggins has been LeBron’s primary defender through two games, and he’s done a terrific job. What Wiggins gives up against LeBron in pure strength, he makes up for in speed guarding him mind you, as they are sagging way off LeBron to clog the lane and more or less daring James to shoot. Given LeBron’s struggles from the outside, it’s a good gamble.

A lot of LeBron’s Game 1 production came down to punishing the Warriors in transition before they could set their defense. Golden State made a point to shut off that tap in Game 2, holding L.A. to just 11.1% transition frequency, 14th percentile among all playoff games per Cleaning the Glass. The Lakers also had a rest advantage in Game 1, and now the remaining games in the series are every other day, no doubt damaging to an older player like LeBron’s ability to recover his stamina.

That lack of stamina was plain to see on Thursday night. While Game 2 was arguably LeBron’s best offensive game of the playoffs, he still only managed to take two shots in the restricted area. That means he’s relying heavily on jump shots outside the paint and floaters or post-ups within it. Even for someone as skilled as James, those are hard shots to make efficiently over an entire game.

My best bet: LeBron James Under 26.5 points (-111)

Warriors vs Lakers same-game parlay

Steph Curry Over 5.5 assists (-135)

LeBron James Under 26.5 points (-115)

Anthony Davis Under 24.5 points (-110)

+550 at DraftKings

Game 2 was all about the adjustments that the Warriors made in response to the Lakers' impressive defensive game plan in Game 1. One of those changes was simple: Put the ball in Steph Curry’s hands more by using more off-ball action to make it harder for Jared Vanderbilt to deny him.

They also wanted to pull Anthony Davis away from the basket at all costs, and they did so by having Curry play more traditional high pick-and-roll and work as a passer.

Davis did his best to hedge and recover, but Draymond Green and Steph are the best in the NBA at creating and capitalizing on four-on-three situations. 

That shift in style saw both Curry and Green see their assists skyrocket, and with no obvious solution, I’m expecting to see more of the same in Game 2. On the other end, Green was shifted to being AD’s full-time defender in the halfcourt, which contributed to Davis scoring just 11 points on 11 shots.

Green played drop on AD but also crowded him when he caught the ball to contest shots. I expect Davis to improve on his Game 2 performance, but not so much as to jeopardize the Under at 24.5.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 3 spread and Over/Under analysis

While I don’t make much of the final score of Game 2, I do think the Warriors solved a lot of what gave them trouble against L.A. in Game 1. Draymond working more to guard Davis on-ball was undeniably effective, as was inserting JaMychal Green into the starting lineup. The Lakers need Vanderbilt to guard Steph, but playing Jarred Vanderbilt allows a place to hide Green on defense and opens the paint for the Warriors on offense. 

That, combined with Curry’s increase in pick and roll play, as well as Golden State’s relentless attack in transition, led to Golden State’s dominance. And yet, despite all of that, the Warriors have been maddeningly up and down in these playoffs (recall their Game 6 debacle at home against the Sacramento Kings). The Warriors are now 0-4 in their last four games following an against-the-spread win, while the Lakers are 4-0 following an ATS loss. I’d slightly favor the Warriors to cover on Saturday, but not enough to take them at +3.

While the Warrior's adjustments were crucial, I’m expecting the Lakers' effort to improve defensively in Game 3. They largely went away from the ball pressure against Curry that stymied so much of what Golden State wanted to do in Game 1, and better effort from Vanderbilt and Dennis Schroder should slow Golden State’s attack some. So, while these teams have combined to hit a lot of Overs recently (including 12 of L.A.’s last 16 games overall) I think 227.5 is a bit on the high side. L.A.’s offense has been DOA throughout the playoffs, struggling to just 110.3 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning the Glass.

Warriors vs Lakers betting trend to know

Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a ATS win. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Lakers.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 3 game info

Warriors vs Lakers Game 3 key injuries

Pages related to this topic