Betting on the NBA this week comes with some risk. You never know what player might be unexpectedly unavailable for a game because of a late trade. That is more true this year than ever before after Saturday night’s fireworks.
But looking at the Houston Rockets and the Minnesota Timberwolves, their rosters should remain intact tonight. And looking at Houston’s strengths this season, they very much counter Minnesota’s offense.
My Rockets vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks expect those strengths to muck up this game. Tip comes at 8:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 6.
Rockets vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Under 214.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While the Minnesota Timberwolves have not been winning of late — just 1-2 outright in three straight home games favored by multiple buckets — their best players have been playing well. To be more precise, their best available players have been playing well.
Anthony Edwards is filling the stat sheet while regaining his scoring groove after fighting through an illness. Jaden McDaniels altered his shot profile to take fewer corner 3-pointers, and he has subsequently become a rebounding force, more active in the entire game.
The issue with backing either of them tonight, even with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo sidelined, is that the Houston Rockets are designed to limit their strengths. The Rockets rank No. 4 in the NBA in 3-point attempts allowed in the last two months, with opponents taking just 34.4 per game. With fewer looks, Edwards will score fewer points, particularly as he has averaged 10.1 attempts from deep in 17 games since Jan. 4.
Houston ranks in the Top 10 in both opponent offensive rebounding rate and opponent defensive rebounding rate. As well as McDaniels has fared on the boards lately — 7.5 per game in his last 15 games since Jan. 9 — trusting him to outrebound the Rockets’ wings would be a bold thought.
However, if both these Minnesota strengths are lessened tonight, then the Timberwolves may have to lean into their greatest asset instead. Even amid relative struggles, Minnesota’s defensive rating ranks No. 6 in the NBA since January 16, an 11-game stretch intentionally coinciding with DiVincenzo’s absence.
The Timberwolves’ few avenues to offense should struggle tonight against the Rockets’ length and perimeter defense, at which point expect Minnesota to dial up its own suffocating defense.
Do not be misled by the two previous matchups this season both going Over their totals. One fell 16 points short in regulation, and the other required Randle and DiVincenzo to go 11-of-16 from deep. Remember, they are both out tonight.
Rockets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Under 214.5
Anthony Edwards Under 3.5 threes
Timberwolves moneyline
While Edwards may be the NBA’s best shooter this year — of players taking eight or more threes per game, only Edwards (42.1%) and Malik Beasley (40.8%) are making more than 40% of their attempts — he has ebbed a bit of late. He has cleared this prop in only two of his last eight games, and with Houston cutting down on looks from deep, tonight should be another slower night from beyond the arc.
Why then back Minnesota to win outright? In part because the last meeting between these two came down to overtime, so let’s give deference to the home team. Houston is also in the midst of a four-game outright losing streak, including two losses to the Brooklyn Nets.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rockets vs Timberwolves odds
Rockets vs Timberwolves live odds
Rockets vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Houston +1 | Minnesota -1
- Moneyline: Houston -105 | Minnesota -115
- Over/Under: Over 215.5 | Under 215.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Rockets vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockets opened as 1-point underdogs before the Timberwolves played Wednesday night. Minnesota took care of Chicago as was largely expected, yet the overnight pushed the spread to favor Houston by 1.5 points.
- The spread then waffled between favoring the Rockets by -1 and 1.5 through the first half of Thursday morning, ultimately settling at -1.5.
- The total opened at 215.5 and fell to 213.5 late in the night before steadying at 214.5 on Thursday morning.
Rockets vs Timberwolves trend
While Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back, Houston is also playing its third game in four nights. In 11 previous such moments, the Rockets are just 4-7 outright, 5-5-1 against the spread, and have cashed seven of 11 Unders. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Rockets vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Thursday, 2-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, FDSN |
Rockets vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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