Warriors vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Golden State's Road Struggles Continue in Denver

The best home team in the league, the Denver Nuggets, welcomes the worst read team aside from the NBA’s trio of tanks tonight.

The Golden State Warriors would need to reverse an entire season’s misery of travels to spring the upset, but they badly need to if they want to keep pace ahead of the Western Conference play-in.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Warriors vs. the Nuggets on April 2, with tip set for 8:30 ET.

Warriors vs Nuggets best odds

Warriors vs Nuggets picks and predictions

This time of year, motivation becomes an intangible vital to NBA handicapping. And for once this spring, the Denver Nuggets should actually have some.

Their lead over the Grizzlies for the No. 1 seed out West is down to two games. By the end of the day, it could be one game with four games remaining apiece. Denver does not want to risk that.

The Nuggets have gone 1-6 against the spread at home since March 6. Before that swell, Denver’s lead in the West was 6.5 games. It had just handed the Grizzlies a 16-point loss in Denver on March 3, at which point Ja Morant’s online foolishness threatened to unravel the Memphis season.

Some Nuggets’ malaise was understandable if still ill-advised. Going 5-7 outright since then, including 3-3 straight-up at home, has led to Denver needing to restart its regular season with some urgency.

But when the Nuggets are engaged at home, there is little that can stop them, not even bookmakers’ expectations. Denver was 14-3-1 ATS at home from Dec. 30 to March 3. Remove that stretch of dominance at home and the Nuggets are only 27-32 ATS this season.

They made their standing by exceeding expectations at Ball Arena, then they got lazy. That cannot remain the case anymore, not with the Grizzlies genuinely threatening.

Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors have not only gone 9-29 SU on the road this season, but they are also 10-28 ATS when away from the Bay Area. And this is not a motivational worry or a recent development... Golden State has gone 1-12 ATS on the road since the start of February. That includes twice being 3-point underdogs earlier this month, losing both games by eight.

Whatever it is that so bothers the Warriors on the road should be applicable tonight in Denver, the best home environment in the NBA right now. There is no need to make this handicap more complicated than that.

My best bet: Nuggets -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Warriors vs Nuggets spread analysis

If this spread were a hefty one, perhaps then there would be reason to worry about a garbage-time cover spoiling the Nuggets’ return to focus. Instead, this one-bucket spread has bounced between -2.5 and -3, in Denver’s favor.

Perhaps the most shocking aspect of Golden State’s subpar season, and subpar spring, has been its struggles in games predicted to be close. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS and 2-4 SU in their last six games with spreads within 3.5 points, dating back to early March.

One might think Steph Curry is enough to provide a winning difference in those tight matchups, but instead, those games are more likely to feature Golden State getting blown out.

In those five ATS losses in games with close spreads since the beginning of March, the Warriors have fallen an average of 10.1 points short of covering the spread, missing that mark by more than 15 points more times than they came within a bucket of it.

Warriors vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

Denver’s dropoff of late has been tied directly to its offense, it would seem. Its last eight games have all gone Under the totals and in six of those, the Nuggets fell short of their team totals.

The last two games have been extremes, falling 25 and 12 points short of their team total, with MVP candidate Nikola Jokic on the bench with a calf worry.

If he returns to the court tonight, and Denver simply being favored suggests that is expected, then the Nuggets' offense should regain its rhythm. If the focus has been the issue the last few weeks, then Memphis’s chase may come at the Warriors’ expense.

At that point, the total of 233.5 could be in danger, despite Denver’s recent Under trend. If the Nuggets can uphold their end, for once, and clear 119, then this should readily approach the Over.

Given Golden State’s defensive rating since March 1 ranks No. 14 in the league, per StatMuse, 119 points should be considered quite tenable for Denver with Jokic.

Warriors vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Under is 8-0 in Denver’s last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nuggets.

Warriors vs Nuggets game info

Warriors vs Nuggets key injuries

Pages related to this topic